Boise State vs New Mexico Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back the Broncos on the Spread

If there's any example of why you shouldn't let past performances dictate your bets, we have it right here. Our college football picks and predictions break down why the Boise State Broncos will have no trouble covering against the New Mexico Lobos.

Last Updated: Sep 9, 2022 6:09 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Taylen Green Boise State Broncos College Football
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Week 2 in the 2022 college football season kicks off on Friday night with a Mountain West clash between the Boise State Broncos and New Mexico Lobos.

Boise State opened its season with a decisive loss to Oregon State, while the Lobos rolled to an easy victory against Maine. However, oddsmakers are expecting opposite results in this showdown with Boise opening as a 15.5-point road favorite before moving to -17. Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Boise State vs. New Mexico picks and predictions on September 9. 

Boise State vs New Mexico best odds

Boise State vs New Mexico picks and predictions

The most important thing to do when handicapping this game is to not overreact to the results in Week 1. Losing by 17 points to a competitive Pac-12 team like Oregon State isn't as bad as it appears.

On the other side, winning by 41 points against an FCS program like Maine which went 4-4 against Colonial Athletic Association foes last year isn't really something to brag about. 

There's a reason that the Broncos entered this season with the second-best odds (+250) to win the Mountain West Championship while the Lobos were at the bottom of the futures board at +20,000.

Boise State had a poor campaign by its high standards last year but it still finished with five wins in its last seven games, which included dominant wins on the road against Fresno State and BYU.

Now it gets to take on a New Mexico squad that finished last season going just 1-9 straight up and against the spread in its last 10 games with an average scoring margin of minus-21.4 points per game.

The Broncos have also won each of the last three meetings against the Lobos by at least 31 points, including their showdown in Boise last November when they won 37-0 to cover as 27-point faves. Look at the larger body of work over the last couple of years when assessing these teams and back Boise State on the spread. 

My best bet: Boise State -17 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Boise State vs New Mexico betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Game info Injuries Weather Trend to know

Spread analysis

The Broncos were slim 2-point road dogs when they faced Oregon State on Saturday and ended up getting dominated in a 34-17 loss. The offense committed five turnovers with fourth-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier giving the ball away three times in the first quarter before getting replaced by redshirt freshman Taylen Green

Green was a bit more productive than Bachmeier (especially with his ability to run with the ball) and it's up in the air who will start on Friday. Bachmeier certainly got the job done last year completing 62.8% of his passes for 3,079 yards and 20 touchdowns.

Although Boise State's defense surrendered 470 yards to Oregon State, it should be much better now that it's back to conference play since the majority of its defensive starters returned from a year ago. Last season it led the conference in scoring defense (19 points per game allowed) with that number dropping to 17.6 ppg vs. Mountain West foes. 

The Lobos began their season with a 41-0 rout of Maine thanks to the dominant play of their stop unit which held the Black Bears to just 117 yards of offense. New Mexico's defense was good last year, ranking fourth in the conference with 363.1 yards per game allowed.

That wasn't enough to make up for a horrific offense that averaged a conference-worst 233.7 ypg — a whopping 78.6 ypg fewer than second-last UNLV. That pathetic attack resulted in a 1-7 SU and ATS conference record for the Lobos in their second year under Danny Gonzales. 

Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for this game opened at 46.5 and dropped to 44 by Wednesday. It's understandable that bettors hammered the Under on the early total given the continuity on defense from both schools and the potential struggles offensively. 

New Mexico averaged a pathetic 8.5 points per game in its final 10 contests last season and failed to score more than seven points in half of those contests. 

The Lobos added transfer quarterback Miles Kendrick from Kansas in the offseason and he should be an improvement at QB. However, the rest of the offense will likely still be a disaster with only two returning starters on the line and leading rusher Aaron Dumas transferring to Washington. 

The Broncos' newfound field general controversy is certainly not ideal to get their offense on track. And regardless of who starts under center, their biggest needs on offense are an improved running game and a new playmaking wideout after losing two-time All-Conference selection Khalil Shaker to the NFL. 

Boise State vs New Mexico game info

Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
Kick-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Boise State vs New Mexico key injuries

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Boise State vs New Mexico weather

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Boise State vs New Mexico betting trend to know

The Lobos are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. New Mexico.

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