2026 Big Ten Preview: Ohio State Won't Be Tripped Up by Tough Schedule

For the last few weeks, I've been previewing every college football power conference, providing my current power ratings and projected win totals for each school, and also offering my favorite bets in each.

Today’s conference is the Big Ten, which has seen three different schools win the National Championship in the last three years. 

My 2026 Big Ten preview sees Ohio State and Oregon as the class of the conference this season.

2026 Big Ten best bets

Pick	Odds
Ohio State Over 9.5 wins	-168
Penn State Under 9.5 wins	-144
USC Under 8.5 wins	-125

Ohio State Over 9.5 wins

-168 at FanDuel

This year the Ohio State Buckeyes play arguably the toughest schedule in the 136-year history of the program, yet I still think there's good value in playing the Over on their season win total. My ratings project them to be favored in all 12 games. 

The Buckeyes play five teams ranked in my Top 15 (at Texas, at Indiana, at USC, vs. Oregon, and vs. Michigan). However, they welcome back eight starters on offense, led by the best player in the country in WR Jeremiah Smith.

They also return starting QB Julian Sayin, and welcome in four transfers who were starters at other FBS programs last year.

I think it’s safe to assume the Buckeyes will easily have one of the best offenses in the country. They also have eight players on defense who were full-time starters at the FBS level last year.

Ohio State is a remarkably consistent program. With the exception of 2011 (then-head coach Jim Tressel was fired in May, and their Top 5 players were suspended), Ohio State has not lost three games in a regular season since 2004. That's 20 straight seasons of cashing this total.

Yes, you’re paying some heavy juice with this bet, but remember a 0.5-win is worth around 70 cents in college football (50 cents in NFL). I would argue at the top (win totals of 9.5 or more) or at the bottom (win totals of 3.5 or less), each 0.5-win is worth even more than 70 cents as there are not as many games in question.

Bet to -180.

Penn State Under 9.5 wins

-144 at FanDuel

Considering the Penn State Nittany Lions missed on several high-profile names in their coaching search, I think Matt Campbell was a solid get late in the process. However, I don’t think Campbell is that big an upgrade over James Franklin, if at all.

I have serious questions about how Campbell will handle the higher expectations. At Iowa State, Campbell’s teams were at their best when expectations were low, and routinely disappointed when expectations were high.

A 9.5-win total, the highest of any first-year coach, is the definition of high expectations.

Why are those expectations so high? It starts with Campbell bringing in a ton of Iowa State transfers with him. Twenty-three players in total transfer in from Iowa State, including 13 full-time starters, led by QB Rocco Becht.

However, those are the same players that managed an 8-4 record vs. Big 12 competition last fall, and will now be playing a tougher conference schedule.

On3 ranks Penn State’s portal class at only No. 51. I think this is a less-talented team than last year’s squad, which had nine players at the NFL combine and 12 other players who played at least 200 snaps transferring out to other Power 4 programs.

The schedule seems favorable on the surface. I could see Penn State favored in as many as 10 contests. That’s the reason I think Penn State as a long-shot in the Big Ten futures market is worth a bet. However, recommending a “plus-money” long-shot in a futures market is far different than a win total.

Do you trust Matt Campbell to sweep the 9-10 games where Penn State is favored? I don’t.

Campbell has lost as an outright favorite 17 times in his last five years at Iowa State, including at least three games each season.

Bet to -175.

USC Under 8.5 wins

-125 at BetMGM

This is USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley’s most complete team to date. The Trojans have a three-year starting quarterback in Jayden Maiava, return their top two rushers, and have their best defensive line in Riley’s tenure.

However, the Trojans have to play the three best teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon). Right now, USC is at least a 5.5-point underdog in all three of those games at DraftKings.

Now the question becomes, can you trust USC to go 8-1 or 9-0 vs. the rest of their schedule? That’s where the value lies.

USC has struggled traveling east. Since 2012, they are 2-16 straight-up in the central and eastern time zones. In addition to playing at Indiana, the Trojans play at Rutgers, at Wisconsin, and also at Penn State in the Nittany Lions’ annual “whiteout” game. I think they lose one of those games.

Throw in games vs. Top 20 Washington and a much-improved UCLA team and I have the Trojans going 8-4 this year, even with a three-point upgrade in their power rating.

Bet to -140.

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Other 2026 Big Ten team previews

Cited college football win totals and odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-14.

Illinois

Win total projection: 6.8

Win total: 6.5 (Over -150)

Illinois head coach Bret Bielema is doing a great job here. Illinois’ 19 combined wins the last two years are a school-record. However, I’ve downgraded their power rating this year, and the markets thinks they will take a step back.

This has been bet down from 7.5 wins. I lean Over 6.5 wins.

Indiana

Win total projection: 10.2

Win total: 10.5 (Under -114)

The defending champs are coming off by far the best season in school history.

I’m done doubting what head coach Curt Cignetti can accomplish. He’ll have Indiana back in the playoffs for a third straight season. With that being said, my ratings lean Under 10.5 wins.

Iowa

Win total projection: 7.9

Win total 7.5 (Over -132)

The Hawkeyes bring in a program-record 16 transfers, many of them from the FCS. Head coach Kirk Ferentz gets the benefit of the doubt for his consistency, but I’ve downgraded Iowa’s power rating this year.

Still, they could be favored in as many as nine games. Lean Over 7.5 wins.

Maryland

Win total projection: 5.7

Win total: 5.5 (Under -142)

Maryland returns a nation-high 14 starters, and rank No. 2 in Bill Connelly’s and Phil Steele’s experience metrics. I bet Over 4.5 wins earlier this offseason, but think 5.5 is a bit much. Lean Under 5.5 wins.

Michigan

Win total projection: 7.9

Win total: 8.5 (Under -184)

Obviously, Kyle Whittingham is a big upgrade over the disgraced Sherrone Moore. However, Michigan plays one of the toughest schedules in the country, including four Top 10 teams (vs. Oklahoma, vs. Indiana, at Oregon, and at Ohio State). I don’t think quarterback Bryce Underwood will improve enough. 

I gave out Under 8.5 wins earlier this offseason and still lean that way with the heavy juice.

Michigan State

Win total projection: 4.3

Win total: 4.5 (Under -176)

Most people love the Pat Fitzgerald hire. I don’t. Fitzgerald was 4-20 in his last two years at Northwestern.

My power ratings project Michigan State to be underdogs in each of their last 10 games. I like Under 4.5 wins.

Minnesota

Win total projection: 5.8

Win total: 6.5 (Under -160)

The Gophers are much improved this year with 14 returning starters. However, it should be noted that Minnesota somehow won eight games last year despite being -0.5 in yards per play (No. 101 in the country).

I would lean Under 6.5 wins.

Nebraska

Win total projection: 6.2

Win total: 6.5 (Under -142)

The Cornhuskers rank in the Top 10 in returning experience. My ratings project them to be favored in each of their first five games.

However, they have to play the three best Big Ten teams (Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon). It looks like another 6-6 type of season.

Northwestern

Win total projection: 5.4

Win total: 5.5 (Under -114)

The Wildcats open up their new $800 million stadium this year. However, the schedule is brutal. They have an ill-timed Week 2 bye, plus road games at Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State.

Lean Under 5.5 wins.

Oregon

Win total projection: 10.2

Win total: 10.5 (Under -130)

Dante Moore returns at quarterback. However, it’s the defensive line that has me most excited, as the Ducks return all four starters up front. 

I think Oregon becomes the fourth different Big Ten team in four years to win the National Title. Over 10.5 wins.

Purdue

Win total projection: 3.4

Win total: 3.5 (Under -154)

I like head coach Barry Odom, but he's inherited a mess and has to start over again in Year 2 with only seven returning starters.

The Boilermakers might be favored in only one game this year. I like Under 3.5 wins.

Rutgers

Win total projection: 5.2

Win total: 4.5 (Over -144)

Despite the return of only seven starters, I think Rutgers could be better this year. The problem is a schedule that could see them underdogs in as many as eight games.

This win total was bet down from 5.5. I lean Over 4.5 wins.

UCLA

Win total projection: 6.3

Win total: 6.5 (Under -128)

My favorite coaching hire this season was Bob Chesney, who's won everywhere he's been.

UCLA ranks in the Top 10 in returning experience. They should double their win total from last year (only 3-9).

I gave out Over 5.5 wins several months ago, but lean Under 6.5 wins at current.

Washington

Win total projection: 7.8

Win total: 7.5 (Over -158)

Quarterback Demond Williams entering the transfer portal in the offseason only to stay gives me some trepidation on the locker room. However, Washington could be favored in nine of their first 10 games.

I like Over 7.5 wins.

Wisconsin

Win total projection: 6.7

Win total: 6.5 (Over -114)

I think the Badgers will be much improved. It starts with transfer quarterback Colton Joseph from Old Dominion (1,007 yards rushing last year). The schedule is also much more favorable than recent seasons. There’s no Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon.

My numbers are really close to market. Lean Under 6.5 wins.

2026 power ratings for Big Ten teams

Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are not only the three best teams in my power ratings in the Big Ten, but they all rank in the Top 4 nationally (Notre Dame is No. 2). I would favor all three by at least a touchdown over the fourth-best team in the conference, USC.

While the Big Ten has passed the SEC at the top of college football with three straight National Championships, the bottom of the Big Ten is still far worse.

Minnesota, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan State, and Purdue would all rank dead-last in the SEC in my power ratings.

Odds to win 2026 Big Ten Championship

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 8-14.

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