Georgia and Auburn will meet as conference play rolls on for both teams.
Auburn hasn't had much fun so far this season. They'll come into this one with two straight losses and a feeling that their season could spiral out of control. Georgia won't be in the best of moods arriving at this either which is why my early Auburn vs. Georgia predictions back the Dawgs.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Auburn vs Georgia predictions
Early spread lean
Georgia -24 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
As the week goes on, I may opt for a first-half wager here rather than a full game, but this will do for now.
Auburn has maintained a decent offensive identity despite a poor record that could be better. The biggest issue here is what they want to do with the ball, which perfectly plays into the strength of Georgia. Under head coach Hugh Freeze, the Tigers have firmly built their identity around the aerial attack. They'll enter this matchup with the third-highest passing rate in the SEC. Some of that is because Auburn has been chasing games, but given the historical context of Freeze, we know some of this is just what he wants his teams to be.
Auburn doesn't have the Alabama playmakers we saw shred Georgia through the air, either.
This is problematic against a Georgia defense that has been good in that regard from an overall perspective this season. Georgia still maintains a Top 25 defensive EPA per opponent dropout on the season. Given that Bama' threw for nearly 400 yards Saturday and failed to knock them out of that top 25, it makes that significant. This feels like a spot where Auburn will have to be unbalanced offensively, and that's where Kirby Smith & company have delivered significant blowout wins.
On the other side of the ball, there are some issues too. This Georgia offense may have woken up and figured some things out in the second half against Alabama last week. That's when it outscored the Tide 27-11, including a 19-point fourth quarter. It's also when QB Carson Beck dropped a career-high 439 passing yards in a performance that included the highest and lowest of lows. That's less than ideal for Auburn.
The Auburn defense has many issues, but the one that Georgia can most easily exploit is the ground. They are 11th in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game, 10th in the conference in yards per carry allowed, and 14th in the conference in rushing plays of 10+ yards or more.
If this offense is becoming more dynamic and Beck's offensive show last week was a sign of things to occur, then a projection of -25.5 for this line is far too short. However, even if not, Georgia's rushing advantage presents a solid chance to cover this number. Former Florida Gator tailback Trevor Etienne hasn't shown the best of his abilities yet, but the obvious talent is there. Despite the underwhelming start, he's averaged over four yards per carry in all three games this season. That makes him a good candidate to take advantage of some of the issues Auburn has had, allowing chunk rushing plays and putting the Bulldogs in a good position to cover.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 53.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I saw a bigger edge on this number than the spread; my projections made this 58.5. The biggest obstacle to overcome here is the tempo, but given that Auburn is the slower of these two offenses, that should be less of a worry. The Tigers will likely be trailing most of this game and thus have a higher sense of urgency to move the ball.
We've talked a good amount about the Georgia offense. There are multiple reasons to expect it to do its part from a simple matchup perspective. When you add the other situational elements, you see why I project a significant edge against the actual number. Georgia certainly didn't risk being left out of the playoffs with just one loss against Alabama; however, it does heighten things. There will be an added incentive to blow teams out and put up style points if the opportunity arises to make metrics look as good as possible. That could very well be in play here.
Let's talk about the Auburn offensive matchup for a second, too.
I mentioned they've been a little unlucky to have the record they've had in the metrics back that up. This isn't the type of DNA you'd usually see for an under .500 team. Putting up 21 points against the Oklahoma defense had to be a little encouraging for Freeze, even though it came in a loss. That's because you can argue that the Sooners defense is on par with what they'll see in Georgia. The eye test plays a part here but from a metrics standpoint? Oklahoma can certainly make that case.
The Sooners rank 13th in adjusted defensive EPA, which is well ahead of Georgia, who sets around 42nd nationally. In addition to that, Oklahoma is ahead of Georgia in both passing and rushing defensive EPA. That holds with Oklahoma facing a more explosive offense than even Alabama in Tennessee. The logic here is simple. If Auburn can score and move the ball at least reasonably effectively against Oklahoma, then why shouldn't they do enough here to push this total Over? There's no good reason, and I'll trust Auburn to answer the bell for something that may not need much help given its defensive struggles.
Auburn vs Georgia live odds
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