America’s Game: Army-Navy. It’s one of the best spectacles not only in college football, but all of sports. And this year, the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy is on the line when the two teams do battle at M&T Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday, December 13.
Of course, this storied rivalry is also known for something else: Service Academy Unders. Those Unders have cooled off in recent years, but my Army vs. Navy predictions and college football picks explain why 2025 will be the return of the greatest trend in sports betting.
Army vs Navy predictions
Who will win?
Army has won this matchup in six of the last nine seasons, and the underdog has won this game outright five of the last nine years. But Navy won in a blowout last season for one big reason: Blake Horvath.
He's been the best service academy QB in years and is what makes the Midshipmen offense so dynamic. Horvath will be the difference once again this season.
Army vs Navy best bet: Under 38.5 (-115)
For the uninitiated.
Unders are a remarkable 46-12-1 in meetings between service academies dating back to 2005 (as far back as Covers’ data goes). That’s a cash rate of nearly 80% — a number basically unheard of in sports betting.
But the trend became so prevalent and overbet that nearly all the value had been sucked out of it, to the point where this Army-Navy game had a closing total of just 28 two seasons ago.
Now, this trend has been successful for a few reasons. For starters, triple option offenses are running the football the large majority of the time and generally not very explosively. And no one knows how to defend the triple option better than the teams that run it.
So, that results in a lot of four-yard runs, with the clock constantly moving, limiting overall possessions in the games. Hence all the Unders.
That has changed recently, thanks to guys like Bryson Daily last year for the Army Black Knights, and Blake Horvath the last two years for the Navy Midshipmen. But I can see a return to form for this trend this weekend.
Navy is coming off a fantastic season, going 9-2 and just missing out on the AAC Championship Game. OC Drew Cronin’s Wing-T variation, led by Horvath, resulted in Navy ranking seventh in offensive success rate this season.
Meanwhile, Army will be bowling with a 6-5 record. However, the Black Knights rank 92nd in success rate on rushes.
If Navy can limit the explosive plays for Army, it will be hard for the Black Knights to consistently score in this one. The Midshipmen will control the game and bring back the Service Academy Unders in the process.
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Army vs Navy same-game parlay
Navy won last year’s matchup 31-13 on the back of Horvath’s impressive day. The Midshipmen QB rushed the ball 25 times for 204 yards and two touchdowns while throwing another 107 two scores through the air. And you can expect another big game from Horvath in what will be his final game in this rivalry.
So, I’m taking Navy to cover the 6.5 points with Horvath scoring multiple touchdowns in this SGP for America’s Game.
Army vs Navy SGP
- Under 38.5
- Navy -6.5
- Blake Horvath 2+ TDs
Our deep-ball SGP: Bank on Tecza TD
Alex Tecza is another Navy standout playing in his final game in this rivalry, who has found the end zone 10 times this season.
Army vs Navy SGP
- Under 38.5
- Navy -6.5
- Blake Horvath 2+ TDs
- Alex Tezca TD
Army vs Navy odds
- Spread: Army +6.5 | Navy -6.5
- Moneyline: Army +198 | Navy -240
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 | Under 38.5
Army vs Navy trend to know
The Under is 46-12-1 in Service Academy matchups dating back to 2005. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs Navy.
How to watch Army vs Navy
| Location | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Saturday, December 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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