The college football regular season has not ended. Its singular focus turns to the East Coast this weekend for the annual Army-Navy celebration. Moving this game to a standalone weekend in 2009 remains one of the best ideas in college football, exposing more fans to both the pains and the beauties of triple-option offenses, as well as all the pageantry tied to these two service academies.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Army vs Navy on December 11, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET.
Army vs Navy odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Army opened as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday, but that two-possession spread quickly fell to -7.5 on Sunday afternoon. By the end of Tuesday, juice suggested that could return to -8, at least a more likely closing number than -7.
The total opened at 36.5 and then somehow fell further, down to 34.5 by Monday night with some books dropping to 34 on Tuesday.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Army vs Navy predictions
Predictions made on 12/7/2021 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Army vs Navy game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Army vs Navy betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Army: Anthony Adkins RB (Questionable).
Navy: Mitchell West S (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 38-9 in the last 47 head-to-head matchups between service academies. It is also 4-1 in Army’s last five games following a SU win and 5-1 in Navy’s last six games as an underdog, a Midshipmen stretch dating back only to October. Find more NCAA betting trends for Army vs. Navy.
Army vs Navy picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Triple-option underdogs make it a habit to cut into two-score spreads in closing minutes, and triple-option favorites are not liable to respond with a quick-strike front door cover. Adding into that the passions of a rivalry as deep as this one and expecting to predict the exact result is an exercise in extreme arrogance.
Yet, here we are.
Army holds opponents to 3.65 yards per rush, while Navy averages only 3.91 yards per rush. The Midshipmen's weakness is the Black Knights’ strength. Meanwhile, Army has averaged nearly five yards per carry while employing a passing game that is deceptively explosive. The Knights do not throw the ball often, only 7.7 times per game, but when they do, it goes very well, averaging 12.12 yards per attempt and 21.9 yards per completion.
Once Army draws in the Navy defense and then hits it over the top with an explosive pass or two to get a two-score lead, the Midshipmen will not have the offensive consistency to get back into the game against that stout Knights run defense.
Prediction: Army -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Falling below 35 makes this a risky gambit, but there is only so much risk in investing in the Under in a service academy matchup. It may be the single most reliable bet in college football.
Not only has it cashed 81 percent of the time in the last 16 seasons, but even this low number would have paid out in three of the last four matchups between Army and Navy.
The logic is simple: when both teams are running the triple-option, the clock does not stop on incompletions. When both defenses are so familiar with the triple-option, there are fewer explosive plays to run up the score. Thus, a shorter game in terms of real-time with fewer chunk scores.
The simple game flow makes the logic even clearer. In their last four matchups, Army and Navy have combined for an average of 101.5 plays per game with a peak of 113 in 2018. Compare that to their usuals: This season, their 22 games averaged 125 plays per game, and that is even with one of the two teams in each game running the triple-option, obviously still far lower than the average college football game.
Look at those 23.5 fewer plays per game as the equivalent of two successful drives. Remove those from a normal game and even this low total feels a bit lofty.
Prediction: Under 34.5 (-110)
Best bet
If wanting to end the season on a high note, a parlay of Army to cover in a low-scoring game would yield a +264 payout. And, frankly speaking, that feels rather likely this weekend.
But the only defensible bet to make when two service academies meet is to play the Under and play it right away. Losing the hook in a five-touchdown game is irksome, but five touchdowns should not be scored this weekend.
Enjoy the pageantry, enjoy the tradition, enjoy the last game of the regular season. Most of all, enjoy a game that finishes exceedingly quickly in no small part due to a lack of points.
Pick: Under 34.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Army vs. Navy picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
