Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa vs Mississippi State Picks

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane will aim to wrap up a highly successful 2020 season as they face the Mississippi State Bulldogs on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. 

College football betting odds have No. 24 Tulsa installed as a slim 2.5-point favorite with the Over/Under set at 47. 

We break down the college football odds with our free Tulsa vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions for the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday, December 31, with kickoff at noon ET. 

Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Weather

It's expected to be an uncharacteristically frigid day in Fort Worth on Thursday with temperatures between 30 and 39 degrees, an 87 percent chance of precipitation, and crossfield winds gusting at 17.5 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key Injuries

Tulsa: Zaven Collins LB (Out), 
Mississippi State: JaVonta Payton WR (Questionable), Kylin Hill RB, Nathan Pickering DT Marcus Murphy DB
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Under is 8-0 in Tulsa's last eight non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tulsa vs. Mississippi State.

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

Let's be honest, the only reason this line is anywhere near this low is that Mississippi State plays in the SEC and Tulsa is a Group of Five team. 

Mississippi State slogged through a brutal campaign where they lost seven of their last nine games. Meanwhile, Tulsa is enjoying a terrific season, going 6-2 and coming off a last-second loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game. 

The Golden Hurricane have one of the top defenses in the country, holding foes to just 4.6 yards per play and 20.8 points per game. Although they'll be without their top defender in Zaven Collins, who decided to opt-out of the bowl game, this is a unit that's more than a one-man show.

And don't let Tulsa's smaller conference fool you into thinking they sharpened their claws against house mice. The Golden Hurricane also limited high-powered offenses like Cincinnati, Central Florida, SMU and Oklahoma State.

Expect them to manhandle a weak Bulldogs offense that ranks outside the Top-100 schools in the country in both total yards and scoring. Back Tulsa to win and cover. 

PREDICTION: Tulsa -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Based on our brief descriptions of Mississippi State's weakness and Tulsa's strength above, you may have thought we were leaning towards the Under. And you would be absolutely right. 

Mississippi State has struggled to move the ball all season thanks to a pathetic ground game that ranks dead-last in the country with a barely-believable total of just 36 yards per game. The Bulldogs also rank 115th in the nation when it comes to third-down conversion rate and turned the ball over a whopping 26 times. 

Luckily for the Bulldogs, the Golden Hurricane aren't exactly loaded with firepower themselves, ranking 57th in the country in yards per game and 74th in scoring.

The Under has gone 8-0 in Tulsa's previous eight non-conference games, while also going 7-2 in Mississippi State's previous nine contests overall. With cold and windy weather also expected for Thursday's game we're taking the obvious play here.

PREDICTION: Under 47 (-110)

Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa vs Mississippi State Betting Card

• Tulsa -2.5 (-110)
• Under 47 (-110)

Where Can I Bet on College Football Bowl Games?

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