Arkansas State vs NIU Prediction: Camellia Bowl Odds and Picks

There are few better illustrations of the current quarterback landscape in college football, particularly in the era of the transfer portal, than the QB matchup in the Camellia Bowl. On one side in the latest bowl game odds, it’s Arkansas State true freshman Jaylen Raynor and on the other, it’s Northern Illinois’ Rocky Lombardi.

Lombardi, a Michigan State transfer, celebrated his 25th birthday in June and is now in his seventh collegiate season. Despite the age advantage, the college football odds favor the Red Wolves in a game the Huskies are poised to devour them in.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois on Saturday, December 23.

Arkansas State vs NIU best odds

Arkansas State vs NIU picks and predictions

On paper, neither of these programs is near the top of the Group of Five, or even their respective conferences. Butch Jones’ Arkansas State Red Wolves finished seventh in the Sun Belt while Thomas Hammock’s Northern Illinois Huskies were fifth in the MAC.

Both programs have felt the impact of the transfer portal heading into the game with at least one key starter from both teams on the way out. Javante Mackey, Arkansas State’s second-leading tackler, is currently in the portal and Northern Illinois has already lost starting center Pete Nygra to Louisville and starting edge rusher George Gumbs to Cincinnati.

But despite the roster attrition, Northern Illinois managed to keep leading receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who spent two weeks in the portal. He’s a big X-factor at receiver and brings 1,912 career yards from scrimmage to an offense that’s thin at the position.

What really separates Northern Illinois though is its defense. The Huskies are 61st in EPA per play and 25th in EPA per rush while holding opponents to just 21.2 points per game, 32nd best in the country.

They’ve been hard to efficiently run on, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry, and have only been giving up 164.6 passing yards per game, sixth least in the country and the lowest in the Group of Five.

Defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto’s unit is one of the most underrated in the country, led by defensive linemen Raishein Thomas, James Ester, and Devonte O’Malley — a combined 18 TFLs and 8.5 sacks — who can pick up the slack for losing Gumbs. With those three stopping the run and Jashon Prophete, Nate Valcarcel, and Javaughn Byrd in the secondary — a combined 13 passes defensed and five interceptions — to slow the pass, they can get after a lackluster Red Wolves offense.

Meanwhile, Arkansas State took advantage of a weak schedule in 2023. Only two of their wins came against bowl-eligible teams — Texas State and Louisiana — and the teams they beat went a combined 21-50.

This is an offense that put up 27.8 points per game and had 129 of them come against Texas State and UMass, two of the worst defenses in the country. When the Red Wolves faced South Alabama, a comparable defense to Northern Illinois, they scored just 14 points.

Despite Jalen Raynor's incredible improvisational skills, this is still just an offense that ranks 80th in EPA per play. A huge issue has been giving Raynor time up front, with the offensive line surrendering the 19th most sacks in the Group of Five. 

The Red Wolves defense has been atrocious this season, allowing 31.2 points per game and ranking 117th in EPA per play.

While Northern Illinois doesn’t have a dominant offense, Hammock and offensive coordinator Eric Eidsness know what their team does well… run the damn ball. Running back Antario Brown has gone for 1,164 rushing yards and 11 total scores this season and is the reason NIU is 44th in EPA per rush despite being just 61st in EPA per play.

The steady veteran presence of Lombardi also helps, as he’s started games in the FBS since 2018 and brings over 7,000 career passing yards to the table. The NIU QB is also a big-bodied runner who can help take advantage of Arkansas State’s dreadful run defense.

My best bet: NIU moneyline (+130 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Arkansas State vs NIU same-game parlay

Under 53.5

NIU moneyline

+339 at bet365

This is a matchup where Northern Illinois’ defense and rushing attack are the biggest difference. Hammock is going to want to run the ball down the throat of this struggling Arkansas State front seven and play ball control offense to bleed the clock.

The Red Wolves are giving up 183.8 rushing yards per game, 16th most in the country, and are now tasked with trying to slow a Huskies offense that’s running for 178.8 per game. 

That’s great for keeping the clock moving, especially in a game where Northern Illinois can take advantage of an outmatched Arkansas State offensive line. As long as the Huskies' defense can contain Raynor, the Red Wolves will struggle to find big plays.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas State vs NIU spread and Over/Under analysis

Most operators opened with Arkansas State as just a one-point favorite, and the public has since flocked in the Red Wolves direction. Arkansas State is now listed as a 2.5 to 3.5-point favorite among all books. 

Butch Jones’ program has been solid against the spread this season, going 7-5 and 4-1 down the stretch. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has struggled slightly more ATS at 5-7, but are 3-1 as underdogs. 

The game total opened between 51.5 and 53.5, with most books settling in at 53.5. This is the fifth-lowest total of the season for the Red Wolves and the fourth-highest total of the year for the Huskies.

Arkansas State vs NIU betting trend to know

Northern Illinois has hit the game total Under in its last six games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs NIU.

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