The College Football Playoff begins tonight with the marquee matchup of the opening round, as the Oklahoma Sooners square off against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Sooners come in as underdogs, but confidence is high they can deliver another strong showing with a berth in the CFP quarterfinals at stake.
Let's get into why in our Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions before kickoff comes at 8pm ET in Memorial Stadium.
Alabama vs Oklahoma CFP predictions
- Oklahoma +1.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
- Over 40.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
- Cuevas o26.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Mateer anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)
Alabama vs Oklahoma best bets
Oklahoma -1.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Since I’m taking the Sooners to win outright as underdogs, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I’ll bet them to cover the spread as well. Alabama has struggled for longer than those in Tuscaloosa would like to admit, and its one-dimensional offense will bite the Tide in the butt against this elite Oklahoma defense.
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/ Over 40.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a matchup of two very strong defensive teams. And it took a defensive touchdown for this matchup to go over this number in the last meeting. That said, 40.5 is just too low, and it won’t take much to send this game Over.
Alabama vs Oklahoma TD pick
John Mateer anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)
It’s hard not to be a fan of John Mateer. He’s the type of guy who will run through a brick wall for his team, and he knows Oklahoma is the most dangerous when he can effectively run the football.
He scored two touchdowns in a big early-season meeting against Michigan and found the end zone in must-win games against Tennessee and Alabama. We are getting a great price for him to score here.
Alabama vs Oklahoma prop pick
Josh Cuevas Over 26.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
This is mostly a bet on role and game script lining up the same way it did the first time these teams played.
Josh Cuevas wasn’t some “nice to have” in that matchup. He was the guy: six catches on seven targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, and it wasn’t empty volume either. He was consistently moving the chains (71% success rate) and creating positive plays (1.02 EPA per target).
That matters because Oklahoma’s defense is legitimately elite across the board, and they’re especially nasty against the run. If you’re Alabama, you don’t want to spend the night banging your head into a front that’s built to erase rushing efficiency. The answer is to live in the quick game and stay on schedule, and Cuevas is a clear candidate to profit from that.
Sure, Oklahoma will adjust from that game, and maybe that trims the clean looks a bit, but I don’t think it changes who Ty Simpson leans on. Cuevas has been a security blanket against pass rushes that force you to get the ball out, and OU is definitively one of those defenses.
This is a low bar for a player who already excelled in this very matchup.
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Alabama vs Oklahoma odds
Alabama vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Friday, December 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC & ESPN |
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