West Virginia vs Iowa Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Caitlin Clark Lets Fire From Deep

Caitlin Clark's final home game for the Iowa Hawkeyes is poised to be a thrilling affair against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Neither team boasts a particularly daunting defense, meaning Clark & Co. could fire away early and often.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Mar 25, 2024 • 17:32 ET • 4 min read
Caitlin Clark Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

No. 1 seed Iowa Hawkeyes inched closer to a national title after soundly defeating Holy Cross Saturday afternoon at Carver-Hawkeye Arena 91-65. 

It was a terrific start to their 2024 Women’s March Madness run but standing in the way is a West Virginia Mountaineers program coming off solid victory of its own but listed as a heavy Women’s March Madness odds underdog for tonight's clash. 

Can the Mountaineers pull off the upset? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free Women’s March Madness picks for West Virginia vs Iowa on Monday, March 25. 

West Virginia vs Iowa best odds

West Virginia West Virginia Iowa Iowa
+800 Moneyline -1,350
+15 (-110) Spread -15 (-110)
Over 163.5 (-110) Total Under 163.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 25, 2024.

West Virginia vs Iowa picks and predictions

The fans at Carver-Hawkeye Arena are some of the most rabid and faithful in all of college sports. They are a vocal, loyal bunch that knew who Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes were long before the rest of us did. 

They witnessed the highs and lows of a unique program going on a National Championship run, and they watched Clark drain the logo three to break Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record.

They can also testify better than anyone that this Iowa defense can’t stop anyone and won’t likely slow down a better-than-average West Virginia Mountaineers offense, either.

The Mountaineers boast one of the best scoring defenses nationally, but they can also score the basketball–they average 74.4 points per night and have cleared this number in nine of their last 13 tilts. The Mountaineers' ability to score will make Monday night’s nationally televised game a fun one to watch and an even better one to bet on as this contest is ending Over the total.

“Ponytail Pete” might grab the headlines, and rightly so, but the Hawkeyes have capable scorers from inside and outside the arc, like Kate Martin, Abbie Marshall, and Hannah Stuelke, who fuel the Hawkeyes' 95-point average at Carver-Hawkeye.

West Virginia plays terrific defense, but it's facing a team that lights opponents up at home. For the Mountaineers to have a chance at an upset, they must score the rock, which they can against the turnstile Hawkeyes defense.

Junior Mountaineers guard J.J. Quinerly scored 29 points in West Virginia’s opening-round win over Princeton. She’s a smooth guard and the type of player who can give a defense-optional team like Iowa fits — and she will — and she has all the help she needs for the Mountaineers to score.

Finally, the Carver-Hawkeye faithful should see a fast-paced, high-scoring affair between one of the highest-scoring women’s programs in history facing a West Virginia group that averages nearly 26 points from turnovers. The Mountaineers defense will have difficulties slowing down the Hawkeyes offense, but its offense can keep up with Iowa. Additionally, the Hawkeyes average 13 miscues per night, so 163.5 points isn’t enough for this one.

My best bet: Over 163.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Caitlin Clark West Virginia vs Iowa prop pick

Clark is playing her final game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Monday night, and you can bet she’ll want to put on a show. She dreamt of playing for the Hawkeyes, and her four years at Iowa have made her a household name.

Ponytail Pete can do it all — she can shoot, score, and she drains 5.2 triples per night, which makes the bookmakers' choice of Over 4.5 threes so interesting.

Clark has struggled recently from downtown at home, so maybe that’s why the bookies dropped the prop number from its typical 5.5 to 4.5. The all-time scoring leader has failed to clear 4.5 made threes in three of her last five — but she keeps firing, and as long as she does, she has a good chance at clearing the number.

The Hawkeyes guard attempts more triples (13.6) and makes more (5.2) per night than any other player in the women’s game. She faces a Mountaineers defense that allows 16 attempts and 29% shooting from downtown per night, which is all the room she’ll need to clear the number.

Monday’s contest will be Clark's final home game, and this is a team scoring nearly 95 points per game at Carver-Hawkeye. Ponytail Pete will benefit from a sometimes leaky West Virginia 3-point shooting defense and, make or miss, she’ll continue to fire away. The Mountaineers allowed 32% from downtown this season on neutral courts, and we should expect the career 37.8% shooter from downtown to fire away. Look for Clark to put on a memorable performance and clear 4.5 triples.

Caitlin Clark prop pick: Over 4.5 made threes (-113 at FanDuel)

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West Virginia vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis

Iowa opened as a -16.5-point favorite, which makes sense. They are playing at home, will have rabid support, and went 14-1 this season at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

West Virginia went 16-14-1 against the spread in a tough Big 12 Conference and meets an Iowa program with an 18-14 ATS mark. The number could rise against Iowa, and you should grab it if it does. The Mountaineers are a confident team that competes, is used to winning, and won’t lie down for the crowd or the Hawkeyes.

The total is my best bet because the Hawkeyes don’t play good scoring defense. Both teams move the ball well and boast more than capable scorers who are used to winning and scoring buckets. The faster tempo should lead to a fast-paced, fun game that ends Over the number.

West Virginia vs Iowa betting trend to know

The Iowa Hawkeyes have scored over 90 points in each of their last seven home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Holy Cross vs. Iowa.

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West Virginia vs Iowa game info

Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
Date: Monday, March 25, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET

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