The No. 1 seed Utah State Aggies face off against the No. 2 seed San Diego State Aztecs for the Mountain West Championship tonight.
These teams are extremely close according to every rating system, and there are a few reasons I'm backing the Aztecs as short dogs in my Utah State vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for March 14.
Utah State vs San Diego State prediction
Utah State vs San Diego State best bet: San Diego State moneyline (+125)
The San Diego State Aztecs lost a close game at elevation in Logan in January. However, they hammered the Utah State Aggies 89-72 in the rematch last month.
The Aggies are highly efficient inside the arc, but SDSU ranks 13th nationally in opponent 2PT% (45.8%). That interior defense has been even better lately with center Magoon Gwath finally looking healthy.
In addition, the Aggies are an NCAA Tournament lock while SDSU is on the bubble and needs this more. I also have more faith in Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher than Jerrod Calhoun who might have one foot out the door.
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Utah State vs San Diego State same-game parlay
The Aztecs are 18th in the country in adjusted defense but this total looks too low for a pair of teams that combined for 161 points two weeks ago. Especially since Bart Torvik and KenPom are projecting 149 points.
Keep in mind that SDSU is 56th in the country in average offensive possession length while Utah State is 80th. The Aggies also have the highest-rated offense in the conference but do a poor job defending the arc and give up too many offensive rebounds.
Since we're already backing the Aztecs on the moneyline, let's add the first half ML to this SGP to ramp the payout to +470.
Utah State vs San Diego State SGP
- San Diego State moneyline
- 1H San Diego State moneyline
- Over 145.5
Utah State vs San Diego State odds
- Spread: Utah State -2 (-110) | San Diego State +2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State -150 | San Diego State +125
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
Utah State vs San Diego State betting trend to know
The Aggies have only covered the first half spread in seven of their last 18 games (-5.90 Units / -28% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. San Diego State.
How to watch Utah State vs San Diego State
| Location | Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, March 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Utah State vs San Diego State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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