USC looks to capitalize on its Pac-12 Tournament aspirations in a second-round matchup with Washington.
The Trojans enter as the No. 3 seed in the tournament and the No. 21 team nationally. Despite the high seed, they had pre-tournament odds of +750 to win the Pac-12 Tournament.
Washington handled business in the first round with an 82-70 win over Utah and has won four of its last five games. Will the Huskies stay hot, or will the Trojans trounce the lower seed?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Washington Huskies and USC Trojans on Thursday, March 10 to find out.
USC vs Washington odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
USC opened at -5 but quickly took some money and moved to -5.5 as of the time of this writing. The total hasn’t budged since opening at 141.5.
USC vs Washington predictions
Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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USC vs Utah/Washington game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
USC at Washington betting preview
USC: Isaiah White G (Questionable).
Washington: Samuel Ariyibi F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Washington.
USC vs Utah/Washington picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
USC relies on a stout defense allowing only 66.0 points per game. The Trojans use their extreme length to alter shots, allowing opponents to convert on only 38.9% of their field goal attempts (14th nationally).
Considering that the Huskies rank outside the Top 300 in field goal percentage (312th at 41.4%), the Trojans should be able to lock down defensively in this matchup.
These teams met once during the regular season, with the Trojans winning 79-69 at home on February 17.
The Huskies are led by Pac-12 leading scorer Terrell Brown, who averages 21.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. The team is playing its best basketball of the season currently, but we're concerned about how they match up with the top teams in the conference. They went 0-5 against the top three seeds (Arizona, UCLA, USC) and lost each game by double-digits.
USC reached a 25-6 record overall while going 14-6 in Pac-12 play and a perfect 11-0 in non-conference games. Forward Isaiah Mobley leads the way with 14.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
Drew Peterson has emerged as a strong secondary option, averaging 12.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on the season while putting forth some monster performances over the last chunk of conference play.
These teams played a few weeks ago and USC was favored by 12 points at home. Washington barely found the cover in a game that was decided by 10 points. We see no reason that there should be a 7-point swing this time around in a neutral setting at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The Trojans hold a vast analytical edge, ranking 77 spots higher than the Huskies in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency — 40th for the Trojans, 117th for the Huskies. The Trojans score more points per game and allow fewer points per game while ranking much better analytically on both ends of the court.
They’re the much better shooting team, hold a significant rebounding advantage, and do a better job taking care of the ball. We’re struggling to find an area where USC doesn’t have the advantage.
USC reached the Elite Eight a year ago. This is a veteran, experienced team, and they’ll have the rest advantage thanks to a well-deserved first-round bye. We think this line is too short.
Prediction: USC -5.5 (-105)
The Huskies play at a very fast pace, ranking 55th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Despite this frantic pace, they still average only 70.6 points per game due to their woeful shooting numbers.
The Huskies are 312th nationally in field-goal percentage (41.4%), 311th from 3-point range (31%), and 254th in free throw percentage (69.3%). The offense ranks only 161st in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Both teams have been trending to the Over. Washington is 10-2-1 to the Over in its last 13 games, while USC is 3-0-1 to the Over in its last four.
We’re going to side with the trends in this spot. Washington’s pace makes them a good bet to score near 70 points despite the inefficiency, and USC should have no difficulty crossing the mid-70s.
The Trojans should get off high-percentage looks against a Huskies defense ranking 276th in scoring defense, 222nd in field-goal defense, and 185th in three-point defense.
The Trojans should destroy on the offensive glass, as they rank 9th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and face woeful Huskies interior ranking 347th in defensive rebounding rate.
Prediction: Over 141.5 (-110)
We think there is line value with the Trojans in this matchup, so we’ll be using them as our best bet.
Washington has yet to prove that it can hang with the top teams in this conference. USC is better at virtually every aspect of the game that you can quantify, won the first matchup by double-digits, and have the rest advantage. This line is too short.
Pick: USC -5.5 (-105)
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