The No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks survived and advanced over No. 12 Oregon State by a final score of 86-72 in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament.
The Ducks are now 1-point favorites against the Colorado Buffaloes, the No. 4 seed in the tournament. The Buffaloes are one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning seven of their last eight games to end the regular season.
Will it be the Ducks or the Buffaloes to advance to the semifinals?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Colorado on Thursday, March 10 to find out.
Colorado vs Oregon odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Despite being the better seed, Colorado opened as the slight underdog at +1. That’s where the line resides as of Wednesday night. The total is set at 140.5.
Colorado vs Oregon predictions
Predictions made on 3/9/2022 at 11:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Colorado vs Oregon game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Thursday, March-10, 2022
• Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
• TV: PAC12 Network
Colorado at Oregon betting preview
Colorado: Eli Parquet G (Out), Lawson Lovering C (Out).
Oregon: Will Richardson G (Out), N’Faly Dante F (Probable), Quincy Guerrier F (Probable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado vs. Oregon.
Colorado vs Oregon picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
It’s highly unlikely that Colorado receives an at-large bid and nearly impossible that Oregon does, so both teams likely need to win out in the conference tournament to go dancing.
These teams are relatively even on a few levels. The Ducks finished the regular season with an 18-13 overall record and were 11-9 in conference play, while the Buffaloes are 20-10 overall and 12-8 in Pac-12 play. Both squads have not been profitable to back this season — the Ducks are 12-19 ATS while the Buffaloes are 12-16-2.
The analytics also view these teams as very close. KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric has Colorado at 76th and Oregon close behind at 79th. The best unit on either team will be Colorado’s defense, which ranks 48th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The two regular-season meetings resulted in a split. Colorado won the first matchup in Eugene 82-78, but Oregon found revenge in Boulder by a score of 66-51.
Oregon has the better offense on paper, averaging 72.1 points per game compared to Colorado’s 70.8 points per game. The Ducks are 58th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, well ahead of the Buffaloes at 103rd. That being said, the Ducks will be missing the services of leading scorer Will Richardson, which will narrow the gap somewhat in the discrepancy of offensive firepower.
Oregon covered the -8 spread with an 86-72 first-round defeat of Oregon State, but we aren’t putting much stock into that victory. The Beavers mustered only three wins all season and have one of the worst defenses of any power conference team.
The Ducks were blown out 94-74 in the regular-season finale against Washington State, evidencing this team’s highs and lows. They’re a high-variance unit that can perform well or poorly on any given night, and we’re dubious of their ability to play at a high level without Richardson. Big men N’Faly Dante and Quincy Guerrier were both banged up in the first-round game, and now must come back on no rest and face a physical Colorado interior. The Buffs should be the fresher team in this matchup, an advantage of the bye.
The Ducks are a trendy sleeper pick by many in this tournament, but we’re not buying in just yet. A win over a pitiful Oregon State team doesn’t change the fact that this team lost five of its last six regular-season games. Those were must-win games if the Ducks wanted a chance at the NCAA Tournament, yet they failed to perform when the pressure was on. Colorado, meanwhile, has been playing its best basketball of the season.
Prediction: Colorado +1 (-110)
Oregon has been a profitable team to back totals with, going 18-11-2 to the Over. Colorado offers a stiff test defensively, allowing only 66.6 points per game while holding opponents to 41.7% from the field.
The Buffaloes aren’t anything special offensively but do specialize in shooting the three-ball, ranking 52nd nationally by converting 36.5% of their attempts from behind the arc. Oregon ranks outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
This game should be played at an average tempo. The Ducks rank 136th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, while the Buffaloes check-in at 189th.
There have been some high-scoring games to start the Pac-12 Tournament at T-Mobile Arena, which has us leaning toward the Over in a game in which both teams should be able to score.
Prediction: Over 140.5 (-110)
Oregon is a trendy pick to make a run in the Pac-12 Tournament, and we believe that sentiment is creating some line value with the Buffaloes.
The Buffs won seven of their last eight games of the season. They shoot the ball better and are much sounder defensively. Oregon is 1-1 in its last two games without Richardson — the loss coming by 20 points, and the win coming over a hapless Oregon State team.
Pick: Colorado +1 (-110)
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