The ball will drop in Cincinnati before dinner time, as Xavier and No. 4 UConn get New Year’s Eve started with a 5:00 p.m. ET Big East game on December 31.
Connecticut is finally healthy, which is why my UConn at Xavier predictions and college basketball picks call for a Huskies cover as double-digit road favorites.
UConn vs Xavier prediction
UConn vs Xavier best bet: UConn -11.5 (-115)
The 12-1 UConn Huskies have won four of five Quad I games this season, as well as both Quad II games.
By comparison, the rest of the Big East has combined to win four Quad I games and lose 14. UConn’s only loss was by four to Arizona in a game starting center Tarris Reed Jr. missed due to injury.
The Huskies have played the tenth-toughest non-conference schedule, according to TorVik analytics. They’ve also done it while battling injury.
In addition to Reed — who missed five games — guard Braylon Mullins missed six, and leading scorer Solo Ball missed the last game with a wrist injury. He’s expected back for Xavier.
UConn has covered just four of its last 10, but the Huskies have covered their last two games as a double-digit favorite.
Xavier is nowhere near as battle-tested — few teams are. The Musketeers are 0-2 against Quad I teams, 1-1 ATS, and 2-2 against Quad II foes — both straight up and ATS.
Xavier was blown out by 41 in its Big East opener against Creighton, setting a record for worst home loss in the history of Cincinnati’s Cintas Center, which goes back a quarter century.
The Musketeers are a shaky shooting team, ranking No. 293 in 2-point shooting percentage and No. 215 in effective shooting. Meanwhile, UConn ranks Top 3 in effective shooting defense and Top 10 in most other shooting categories.
Look for the Huskies to shut down Xavier in another long night at Cintas for the home team.
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UConn vs Xavier same-game parlay
Xavier has gone Over in six of its last seven and the last four against power conference opponents. This is the lowest over/under cutoff the Musketeers have faced in seven games. That’s because UConn plays at the No. 294 pace in the nation. The Huskies can go up-tempo when necessary, including wins over Florida and BYU, which both went Over.
The 6-foot-9 Serbian transfer is averaging a career-best 8.8 points, but UConn has been dominating opposing big men. Over their eight-game winning streak, the Huskies have faced 19 starting centers and forwards. Just five have shot over 50% for the game, and the combined group of opposing bigs shot 50 of 134, .373.
UConn vs Xavier SGP
- UConn -11.5
- Over 145.5
- Filip Borovicanin Under 7.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Reed between the lines
Xavier hasn't been great at defending the paint, and Reed will be fed down low.
UConn vs Xavier SGP
- UConn -11.5
- Over 145.5
- Filip Borovicanin Under 7.5 points
- Tarris Reed Jr. Over 13.5 points
UConn vs Xavier odds
- Spread: UConn -11.5 | Xavier +11.5
- Moneyline: UConn -850 | Xavier +575
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
UConn vs Xavier betting trend to know
UConn has covered the Spread in 8 of the last 13 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Xavier.
How to watch UConn vs Xavier
| Location | Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
UConn vs Xavier key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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