UConn vs Xavier Picks and Predictions: Musketeers Do the Little Things

The Xavier Musketeers have lost two straight games but will look to get back on track against the UConn Huskies. 

The Huskies were also on a two-game losing streak before defeating Marquette in their most recent game, 80-72, at home. Xavier, on the other hand, has a 6-6 record in conference play and would like to get back to over .500 in tonight’s contest. 

Can the UConn Huskies pull off that small upset on the road? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Connecticut vs. Xavier on Friday, February 11.

UConn vs Xavier odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Xavier opened as a 1.5-point favorite and at most outlets, still is. However, some outlets have moved to -2.5 for Xavier, so make sure to line shop. The total, on the other hand, opened at 140 and has mostly jumped up to 140.5 at the majority of legal outlets. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

UConn vs Xavier predictions

• Prediction: Xavier -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 140.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Xavier -1.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/11/2022 at 7:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UConn vs Xavier game info

• Location: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Friday, February 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1

UConn at Xavier betting preview

Injuries

UConn: Akok Akok F (Questionable).
Xavier: Dieonte Miles F (Questionable), Cesare Edwards F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for UConn vs. Xavier.

UConn vs Xavier picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Big East is one of the more underrated conferences in college basketball. Tonight, you’ll see why. Both of these teams are tremendous and play at a high level. 

We know Connecticut can compete with Auburn and we know Xavier can compete with Ohio State, for example. Both of these teams have the talent to go far in the NCAA Tournament. 

But now it’s time for Xavier to defend their home court against a ranked opponent. Xavier is holding teams to a 46.7% effective field foal percentage while limiting them to 31.4% from deep and 46.5% from inside the arc.

The Musketeers are average at forcing turnovers at 18.7% per game but have been able to keep teams off the glass, allowing under 25% of offensive rebounds.

Connecticut, on the other hand, is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, earning 38.5% offensive rebounds. If Xavier is able to limit Connecticut in that area, things will be looking good for the Musketeers. 

The Huskies are also shooting 35.3% from deep but just 48.4% inside the arc this season. They will need second chances if they’re going to shoot that poorly inside. 

Meanwhile, Connecticut has held opponents to 34.7% from deep and 41.5% from inside the arc. Xavier will take more three-point attempts than UConn, which will probably be a good thing for them, knowing that Connecticut has been hard to score on inside. 

The Huskies also foul a whole lot and Xavier is aggressive at getting to the line. Xavier is hitting 71.3% of its foul shots and should get there more often than Connecticut. 

Therefore, if Xavier can keep the Huskies away from their average on the offensive glass and can get to the line at a higher rate while getting more open looks from deep, I like the Musketeers to pull away and cover the spread. 

Prediction: Xavier -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Most teams are struggling to score quickly against Xavier’s defense, using 18.4 seconds per possession. However, UConn wants to speed up the game a little bit and Xavier’s offense won’t mind that either. 

The Huskies likely won’t shoot at a high rate but will get offensive rebounds and second-chance buckets that will help them stick around in this game. Meanwhile, Xavier will get to the line more often and should get a bunch of wide-open looks from three.

I’ll take the Over here.

Prediction: Over 140.5 (-110)

Best bet

I’m sticking with Xavier here. Xavier is the home team and, per my analysis, do more to win games. 

UConn won’t be grabbing a crazy amount of offensive rebounds in this game, and Xavier should hit a solid clip from three while getting to the line more frequently. 

Pick: Xavier -1.5 (-110)

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