UConn vs Florida Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators Outdone by Quality Opponent Again

The UConn Huskies head to Gainsborough to face off against the Florida Gators in college basketball action on Wednesday night.

The No. 5 ranked Huskies are a perfect 9-0 while the unranked Gators have gotten off to a 6-3 start in their first season with Todd Golden at the helm.

College basketball betting odds opened with the Huskies as 4-point road favorites for this matchup before ticking up to -4.5.

Here are my best free UConn vs. Florida college basketball picks and predictions for December 7.

UConn vs Florida best odds

UConn vs Florida picks and predictions

There are a couple of reasons to like the Gators as home dogs in this one. After all, it's the first road game of the season for UConn and the Gators have the size to compete on the boards, thanks to center Colin Castleton.

That said, every time the Gators have played a good team this season they have come up short. That includes a crushing 29-point defeat to West Virginia last week and a loss at home to Florida Atlantic. Their only two victories against Power Five schools came against Oregon State, who is below .500, and the Florida State Seminoles, who are just 1-9. 

Meanwhile, the Huskies are 2-0 against Quadrant 1 and 2-0 against Quad 2 foes while cruising to double-digit victories in all of those contests.

UConn is the only school that ranks in the Top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (eighth) and adjusted defensive efficiency (10th) according to Ken Pom, and it has the best ATS record in the nation at 8-0-1. 

I'm not jumping off the UConn bandwagon now, especially with a relatively short spread against an inconsistent Florida squad that could be missing its starting point guard.

My best bet: UConn -4.5 (-110 at bet365)

UConn vs Florida spread analysis

The Huskies have reeled off nine straight wins to begin the year and have gone a sizzling 8-0-1 against the spread. Their last four wins have come against Power 5 foes, with UConn beating Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, and (most recently) Oklahoma State. 

UConn has a formidable inside/outside scoring duo in Jordan Hawkins (13.3 ppg while knocking down 3.0 treys per game) and big man Adam Sanogo (18.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Point guard Tristen Newton pulls the strings on offense with 4.2 assists per game and he also uses his length and quick hands to lock down opposing ball handlers.

Beyond those three players, the Huskies are loaded with depth with nine active players averaging more than 14 minutes per game. They also have plenty of length and use that size to dominate the glass with the third-best rebounding rate in the nation. 

The Gators are coming off back-to-back blowout wins against tiny Stetson and Florida A&M to improve their record to 6-3 SU (4-5 ATS). That allowed them to lick their wounds after an embarrassing 84-55 loss to West Virginia on November 27.

Castleton got into early foul trouble in that game but that's no excuse when he scored just three points in the 18 minutes he was on the floor. Castleton leads the team in scoring (16.6 ppg), rebounding (7.4 rpg), and blocks (2.9 BPG) while guard Will Richard has been red-hot from the outside averaging 13.6 ppg on 61/59/95 shooting splits.  

Point guard Kyle Lofton (9.6 ppg and a team-high 4.1 apg) has missed the last two games with back spasms and will be a game-time decision tonight.

The Gators are 43rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 55th on the defensive side of the floor. 

UConn vs Florida Over/Under analysis

The Huskies are a half-court team but they have been playing at a slightly faster pace and rank 131st in adjusted tempo after sitting 300th in that category last season.

The Gators play at the 22nd fastest tempo in the country and with the exception of that ugly offensive performance against the Mountaineers, they've been filling up the hoop. Despite shooting just 34% from the field in that contest they have a 47.6 FG% on the season while averaging 81 ppg. 

The Huskies have an almost identical 47.5 FG% but have seen that number drop to 40.8% in their last three games as they have played some strong defensive teams during that span.

They relied on their defense to win those contests and they now rank 15th in the country in scoring defense by holding foes to 58.7 ppg on 38.5% shooting. Despite that lockdown play on defense, the Over has cashed in five of the Huskies' last six contests.

UConn vs Florida betting trend to know

The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more College basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Florida.

UConn vs Florida game info

Pages related to this topic