A decisive meeting for two teams gets going when Louisville faces SMU in the ACC Tournament.
The Cardinals are viewing this conference tournament as an opportunity to improve their seed, while the Mustangs are still working to secure a bid. With Louisville without the services of its star freshman yet again, we expect others to pick up the scoring slack.
Read why I like a senior to have a big showing in my Louisville vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks below.
SMU vs Louisville prediction
SMU vs Louisville best bet
SMU vs Louisville best bet: J'Vonne Hadley Over 14.5 points (-110)
With Mikel Brown out, J'Vonne Hadley inherits a bigger slice of this elite Louisville Cardinals offense. He’s already the most efficient transition scorer and is the primary perimeter cutter at the rim.
The SMU Mustangs have been an awful defensive team much of the year, and these are two areas in which they struggle: Bottom 25% in transition defense and Bottom 10% on perimeter cuts.
His usage bump is significant. Hadley will go from a third option on the perimeter to a second. There are a lot of reasons to like Hadley, and he’s proven to be one of Louisville’s most dynamic scorers all year.
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SMU vs Louisville same-game parlay
I think Louisville wins this game because this is simply the more talented team, and my projections had them narrowly covering the number. The Cards' moneyline leads off my same-game parlay because of that.
I paired it with the Over. Although I think Louisville wins (and potentially covers), neither team is well set up to defend the other, as evidenced by the two regular-season head-to-head meetings.
SMU vs Louisville SGP
- J'Vonne Hadley Over 14.5 points
- Louisville moneyline
- Over 163.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Offense all over!
Adrian Wooley will come into this matchup riding high after his best game of the season. That game could serve as a proxy for this matchup, and he dished out six assists as the primary point guard.
With Mikel Brown out today, I think this game could be similar. I paired that with Pierre to exceed his points total. I don’t think Louisville has many options to slow him down.
SMU vs Louisville SGP
- J'Vonne Hadley Over 14.5 points
- Over 163.5
- Adrian Wooley Over 2.5 assists
- Jaron Pierre Over 16.5 points
SMU vs Louisville odds
- Spread: SMU +6.5 | Louisville -6.5
- Moneyline: SMU +205 | Louisville -300
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
SMU vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has cashed the moneyline in 10 of its last 14 games for +4.0 units and a 3% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for SMU vs. Louisville.
How to watch SMU vs Louisville
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, March 11, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
SMU vs Louisville key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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