Oregon vs Arizona Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ducks Keep Up With Wildcats

The last time these teams matched up this season, Oregon beat the brakes off Arizona with its hot shooting. Now with the Wildcats 9-point faves, our college basketball betting picks think that's too many points.

Last Updated: Feb 2, 2023 10:25 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Will Richardson Oregon Ducks NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Wildcats have found their groove once again after a midseason lull.

The Wildcats look for their fifth straight win as they host an Oregon Ducks team that have been surging. The Ducks have won four of five, one of which was a dominant 87-68 win over Arizona on January 14.

Will Zona get revenge, or do the visitors get the upper hand yet again?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Arizona on Thursday, February 2 to find out. 

Oregon vs Arizona best odds

Oregon vs Arizona picks and predictions

One of the stranger results of the 2022-23 college basketball season occurred the first time these two teams met on January 14. Playing at home, Oregon completely dominated Arizona by a score of 87-68, holding a 43-37 lead at the half and never looking back The Ducks shot 53% from the field while holding Arizona to 37%. 

Oregon has been a mercurial team, alternating between looking like all problems have been solved and appearing to be simply a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. Such is life when your team is primarily constructed through the transfer portal.

Coach Dana Altman is known for overcoming underwhelming starts to the season only to have his team prepped to make a postseason run, so it feels as though the rest of the conference is biding its time and waiting to see whether or not the Ducks have another gear. 

Arizona is the class of the Pac-12 currently, ranked fifth in the nation and surging up the standings at just half a game behind the faltering UCLA Bruins. The Wildcats rank 12th overall in KenPom while checking in at 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

They're outscoring opponents by 11.6 ppg. Those numbers look much better than Oregon, who outscored opponents by just 4.3 ppg while ranking 56th in KenPom. 

While Arizona is certainly the better team in a vacuum and the justifiable favorite, I find the current line of -9 to be simply too wide for this matchup. The Wildcats have been notably dominant at home, winning 26 of their last 27 games at the McKale Center.

Oregon has been an exception, winning three of its last four road games against Arizona. Altman seems to have the secret ingredient for playing tough on the road at the McKale Center.

We’ve already seen the Ducks be successful against the Wildcats once this season. While a repeat shooting performance is highly unlikely, this is a good matchup for Oregon.

Most teams are unable to match Arizona’s two big men in Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo, who combine to average 35.6 points and 18.7 rebounds per game. The Ducks are a noted exception with N’Faly Dante, Kel’el Ware, and Nate Bittle all possessing the requisite size to throw at this Wildcats’ frontcourt. 

According to Haslametrics, Arizona ranks second nationally in near-proximity shooting. The Wildcats live in the paint and typically overwhelm and outmuscle their opponents. That won’t be such a simple task against a Ducks team ranking 33rd in near-proximity attempts per game and 79th in near-proximity shooting. Altman’s squad will look to deter easy looks at the hoop just as it always does. 

This line is too wide as the Ducks are surging with wins in four of their last five games and matchup well considering they have the size and athleticism in the frontcourt to match Arizona — which few, if any, other Pac-12 teams can boast. 

My best bet: Oregon +9 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Oregon vs Arizona spread analysis

Oregon ranks 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 69th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Fifth-year guard Will Richardson leads the team in scoring (13.6) and assists (5.5) as the main ball-handler, while another fifth-year guard in South Carolina transfer Jermaine Couisnard averages 13.5 ppg.

Having nearly 10 years of experience from your two main ball handlers has to mean something on the road in a tough matchup, right? 

Arizona’s offense is its calling card. The Wildcats are averaging 82.9 ppg led by Tubelis (20 ppg) and Ballo (15.6 ppg). While they’re off to a strong season thus far, the results haven’t been profitable for bettors backing this team.

Arizona is just 9-12-1 ATS this season. Typically dominant during the weekend, the same can’t be said on weekdays. The Wildcats are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. 

The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, and I believe the inflated spread of Arizona -9 is selling Altman’s side short. The Wildcats haven’t always handled business from a betting standpoint when playing at home, going just 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games at the McKale Center against a team with a losing record. 

Oregon vs Arizona Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 151.5 but has been on its way down, moving to 149.5 across most books. As high as 150.5 is also available, so be sure to shop around. 

Arizona is known for playing with pace, ranking 11th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Oregon doesn’t traditionally play with much urgency, checking in at just 221st in adjusted tempo.

Altman stated that his team is excited to play in this matchup since Arizona likes to push the pace and that is a fun environment for his players to experience. There should be plenty of possessions in his game as Arizona does its thing at home and Oregon is paced up. 

I don’t expect Oregon’s hot shooting from the first matchup to continue, but neither does the betting market, sportsbooks, or anyone else. It’s somewhat irrelevant to this handicap in my opinion, or at least that’s how I approach things. Why focus on something that is obvious? Time is better spent elsewhere. 

Oregon is far from a lethal team offensively, ranking 157th in field goal shooting (45%) and 328th in 3-point shooting (30.6%), Still, the points will be there against an Arizona team setting a ridiculously high tempo and surrendering 71.3 ppg despite their solid numbers elsewhere on defense.

Arizona has one of the best offenses in the country and is 5-1 to the Over in its last six games against a team with a winning record. I lean toward the Over. 

Oregon vs Arizona betting trend to know

The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Arizona.

Oregon vs Arizona game info

Location: McKale Center, Tuscon, AZ
Date: Thursday, February 2, 2023
Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET

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