On Thursday, March 4, No. 3 Baylor hosts No. 17 Oklahoma State at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas. The game tips at 7:00 p.m. ET, with the Cowboys looking to win their sixth contest in a row.
Will Cade Cunningham lead Oklahoma State to yet another victory? Or will Baylor show the world why this is the one of the nation’s true contenders? Find out in our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor picks and predictions.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Oklahoma State: G Isaac Likekele (Questionable), G Donovan Williams (Out), G Chris Harris Jr. (Out)
Baylor: F Tristan Clark (Out)
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Baylor is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBaylor opened an 11.5-point favorite at FanDuel on Wednesday afternoon and spent the overnight hours at -11, then moved to -12 this morning and stuck there all day. However, as of 6:30 p.m. ET, FanDuel customers are on road underdog Oklahoma State, to the tune of 83 percent of bets and 79 percent of money on the spread. The total moved from 149 to 149.5, then fell to 147.5, and it's now 148.5, with 81 percent of bets/87 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
While Oklahoma State is mostly a one-man show, it seems like some people don’t get how good the act is. This season, Cade Cunningham is averaging 19.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, and the Cowboys are looking like they’ll earn a four seed or better in the NCAA Tournament — if they end up being eligible to play. Cunningham’s supporting cast is absolutely miserable, but he is such a good player that he raises the play of the people around him. That’s why he’s looking like the top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. But Cunningham is going to need help against Baylor, and it’s unclear where he’ll find it.
Baylor has struggled since the team’s COVID-related layoff, going just 2-1 straight up and 0-3 against the spread. However, the Bears did earn a 94-89 overtime win over the West Virginia Mountaineers on Tuesday, and that long, high-scoring game likely gave Baylor the time it needed to work through its issues. Now, the Bears should be able to get themselves rolling, and they need to right now. The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner.
Baylor’s defense is the thing to watch in this game. The Bears are 21st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom.com), and they now face a Cowboys team that can really struggle to score the basketball. If the early-season Baylor shows up tonight, the Bears should shut down Cunningham and Co. And on the other end of the floor, nobody is capable of stopping Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell. Baylor's duo just might be the best backcourt in the country.
PREDICTION: Baylor -11.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
While Baylor’s defense should make life difficult on Oklahoma State, the Cowboys will still score a decent amount of points, even if it’s not the most efficient performance.
The Bears can play at hyper speed at times, as they have some of the best shooters in the country and like to get out in open space and let them go to work. That will lead to some easy buckets on the other end of the floor. Overall, this number is pretty high, but it’s understandable and the Over seems like the safer play.
PREDICTION: Over 149.5 (-110)
Oklahoma State vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -11.0 (-110)
- Over 149.5 (-110)
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