The college basketball betting board has some terrific matchups on Friday, including a Big 12 Conference Tournament battle between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Baylor Bears.
The Cowboys are led by the projected first pick in the upcoming NBA Draft Cade Cunningham, but will he be enough to overcome a dominant Baylor squad that ranks No. 2 in the country?
We let you know what we think with our best free Oklahoma State vs. Baylor picks and predictions for Friday, March 12, from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWilliam Hill US pegged Baylor a 10-point favorite Thursday night and this morning moved to -9, which director of trading Nick Bogdanovich still felt was a bit too high. And indeed, a short time ago, the number moved to Baylor -8.5, where it sits at 6 p.m. ET, shortly before tipoff. "I would say that Oklahoma State is the hot flavor of the month," Bogdanovic said. "They’ve got the No. 1 draft choice in Cade Cunningham, so they’re definitely popular. The money we do have so far is all on Oklahoma State." Indeed, the Cowboys are taking 79 percent of bets and 92 percent of cash. The total dipped from 151 to 147.5. "We're slightly high on the Under," Bogdanovich said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOklahoma State Cowboys vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Oklahoma State: Donovan Williams G (Out), Chris Harris Jr. G (Out).
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Cowboys are heating up at exactly the right time, coming off a 72-69 win over West Virginia to improve to 7-0 ATS over their last seven games. But it won't be easy for Oklahoma State to cover this spread against a Baylor Bears juggernaut that has already beaten them by double-digits twice this season.
Cade Cunningham was recently named Big 12 Player of the Year and he leads an Oklahoma State offense that averages an impressive 76.6 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting.
That said, the Cowboys allow the second-most points in the conference, at 72.2 ppg, and they play a bit out of control which results in them ranking outside the Top-300 schools in the country with 16 turnovers per game. That's bad news against an opportunistic Baylor squad that ranks sixth in the country (first among Power Six schools) by forcing 17.5 turnovers per game.
Forcing turnovers isn't the only thing that Baylor does very well, with the Bears also shooting a sizzling 49.7 percent from the field while holding opponents to 65.7 ppg. Oh, and for good measure, they also happen to lead the conference in rebounding rate.
There's a reason that Baylor has an average scoring margin of plus-19.7 ppg; they are ridiculously good. Expect the Bears to be too much for Oklahoma State once again, and back them on the spread.
PREDICTION: Baylor -9 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Over trends abound for both teams, with Baylor 10-1 O/U in their last 11 games overall, while Oklahoma State is 5-1 to the Over in their previous six. The Cowboys also have a tendency to play higher-scoring games against quality opponents, going 21-5-1 to the Over in their last 27 contests against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cowboys have been humming on offense lately, averaging 79 ppg over their last six. Those contests have been against some of the top teams in the conference like Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia...and yes, Baylor.
Meanwhile, the Bears have been crushing it on the offensive end of the floor all season, ranking third in the nation in scoring with 85.3 ppg. Not only does that number lead the Big 12, but it's also a whopping 7.7 ppg higher than second-place West Virginia.
When you also factor in the Cowboys' tendency to play at a fast pace and push the tempo, the Over looks like the play.
PREDICTION: Over 151 (-110)
Oklahoma State vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -9 (-110)
- Over 151 (-110)
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