Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Step Up in NC

It’s Senior Night in Chapel Hill, but the North Carolina Tar Heels have bigger plans on deck as the ACC schedule winds down. 

The Heels are hefty home chalk on the college basketball odds board, hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish ahead of a huge weekend war with rival Duke — a game that will decide the conference tournament pecking order.

North Carolina can’t afford a stumble against a Fighting Irish squad coming off two impressive home wins over Clemson and Wake Forest. The road has been a strange spot for the Irish, going just 2-8 straight up in true road games but covering the spread in seven of those 10 travel spots.

I take a closer look at the spread and Over/Under total for tonight's ACC tilt and give my free college basketball picks for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina on March 5.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina best odds

Notre Dame vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Notre Dame ranks as one of the basement teams in terms of offense in the ACC but has pumped out some respectable numbers on that end of the floor in the past six games.

The Fighting Irish are averaging more than 71 points per game in that span — a significant improvement over its 61.5 average points before that turnaround. Four of those efforts did come at home and that stretch included some bottom-tier ACC defenses as well.

This trip to Chapel Hill is a major step up for Micah Shrewsberry’s program, visiting the ACC’s best defensive team and a North Carolina squad that sits No. 6 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating.

The Tar Heels are a smothering group, loaded with long athletic talent that plugs up the paint, crowds the passing lanes, and has the depth to mix and match on the defensive end. North Carolina also doesn't get pushed around on the defensive glass, ranking 17th overall in rebound rate, limiting any second-chance points and added possessions.

Stopping the Irish may be as simple as stopping either Markus Burton or Braeden Shrewsberry, who are the only two Notre Dame players averaging double figures in points this season. 

The Irish run a methodical pace with the basketball that digs deep into the shot clock and most often ends in Burton or Shrewsberry attacking in isolation. Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis has three on-the-ball options to throw at those scorers in RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Cormac Ryan, and a paint protector in Armando Bacot to change shots at the rim. 

Notre Dame is no slouch defensively, either. It rolls out a large lineup that also protects against easy looks and ranks No. 2 in the ACC — behind UNC — in defensive efficiency. The Irish’s defensive intensity travels as well, checking host teams to only 68.9 points on 50.1% effective field goal rate in their own gym.

Game models for this ACC affair forecast between 133 and 136.5 combined points from Notre Dame and UNC tonight, which sits below the high mark of 138 points for the game total.

Given the larger point spread, the game script could also see things slowing down in the second half if North Carolina pulls away. Davis would love a chance to rest his starters ahead of this weekend’s trip to Durham and we could see him give bonus minutes to some seniors deeper down the bench in their final homestand.

My best bet: Under 138 points (-110 at bet365)

Notre Dame vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Under 138.5

North Carolina moneyline

Markus Burton Over 3.5 assists

+325 at bet365

Two of the best defenses in the ACC clash and neither gives up anything easy. Notre Dame isn’t a good enough outside shooting team to counter UNC’s size.

Losing this one isn’t an option for North Carolina, as its spot atop the ACC is still in the balance.

Burton will draw the ire of the Heels defense tonight, forcing him to give up the ball and create shots for others. Projections call for four dimes from the freshman.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

North Carolina hit the board as a 15.5-point home favorite and we’ve seen that tick down to -14.5 at most shops, as of Tuesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 52% of early picks are taking that pile of points with the road underdog.

The Tar Heels, who bring a four-game winning streak into Tuesday (2-2 ATS), have plenty to celebrate on Senior Night with several standouts playing their final game in Chapel Hill.

However, UNC must be careful not to get too caught up or look past the Irish, with a date at Duke on deck this weekend. The Heels have watched their wheels wobble the past month, and while North Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last nine games, it’s only covered the spread in three of them.

Notre Dame is hitting its stride at a good time, winning five of its last six contests (5-1 ATS) and climbing out of the basement of the conference just in time for the ACC Tournament. 

Playing four of those games in South Bend has helped, as ND has won only two true road games this season. That 2-8 SU record looks very different when factoring in the spread, with ND going 7-3 ATS as a visitor. That record includes ATS wins as 13.5-point dogs at Virginia and +14.5 at Duke.

The Over/Under total opened at 137.5 points and is up to 138 at many books. Covers Consensus shows 55% of early picks on the Over. 

North Carolina is 13-16 Over/Under on the year, with a 7-6-1 O/U mark inside the Dean Dome. The Heels come into this game on a three-game Under streak. As for Notre Dame, it’s 10-19 O/U overall including 4-6 O/U on the road. 

Notre Dame vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Notre Dame has finished Under the total in 20 of its last 30 games (+9.10 units) going back to last season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina game info

Notre Dame vs North Carolina key injuries

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