Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

Sartori's prediction: Carlos Rodón to help Yankees finally get back in the win column to strike back at the Mets.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Jul 5, 2025 • 08:48 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Carlos Rodón New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (55) delivers a pitch.

The New York Mets host the New York Yankees in the second matchup of this three-game Subway Series at Citi Field. MLB odds list the Yankees as a -148 favorite, while the total sits at nine.

My Yankees vs. Mets predictions target a side in this Subway Series matchup.

Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, July 5.

Yankees vs Mets prediction

My Yankees vs Mets best betYankees moneyline (-148 at FanDuel)

The Bronx Bombers are living up to their nickname this season. Entering this matchup, they rank in the top four in the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.

The New York Yankees outrank the New York Mets in each of those four key categories. Not only do they have the hitting advantage, but they also boast the pitching edge with left-hander Carlos Rodón taking the mound.

Rodón has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year. Through 18 starts, the former No. 3 overall draft pick is 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even stronger. This season, the southpaw owns a 2.89 expected ERA (xERA) and a .200 expected batting average (xBA), two of the best marks in baseball.

That success is likely to continue against the Mets, a team he has dominated throughout his career. Rodón is 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)

Yankees moneyline

Carlos Rodón 7+ strikeouts

Cody Bellinger to record 2+ total bases

Carlos Rodón’s greatest strength this season has been his ability to generate strikeouts. He ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and the 87th percentile in strikeout rate.

If the Yankees are to win this game, they’ll need some offensive support as well. One of the top candidates to contribute is Cody Bellinger, who has recorded two or more total bases in four of his past six games.

Yankees vs Mets odds

Yankees vs Mets live odds

Yankees vs Mets opening odds

  • Moneyline: New York (AL) -148 | New York (NL) +126
  • Run line: New York (AL) -1.5 (+106) | New York (NL) +1.5 (-128)
  • Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Yankees vs Mets trend

Carlos Rodón is 3-0 through three career starts against the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.

How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info

Location CitiField, Flushing, NY
Date Saturday, 7-5-2025
First pitch 4:10 p.m. ET
TV YES, SNY, FS1
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon
(9-5, 2.95 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher Frankie Montas
(0-1, 6.00 ERA)

Yankees vs Mets latest injuries

Yankees vs Mets weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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