Notre Dame vs Miami Picks and Predictions: Irish Weather the Storm in ACC Clash

The Hurricanes have positioned themselves to win the ACC regular season title but have a tough test first, facing a desperate Fighting Irish team tonight. Our Notre Dame vs. Miami picks expects the Irish to fight another day — read more below.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at
Feb 2, 2022 • 16:03 ET • 4 min read
Dane Goodwin Notre Dame Fighting Irish college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Hurricanes (16-5, 8-2) sit atop the ACC and can gain sole possession of that spot with a win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-7, 7-3) on Wednesday night. 

Miami shares that spot currently with No. 9 Duke, who Notre Dame lost to on Monday night while scoring just 43 points in the process.  With a win over Duke already under their belts, the Hurricanes have a realistic chance to secure the ACC regular season title. Conversely, Notre Dame is fighting for its tournament life as it’s outside the bubble with a few games left against quality opponents.

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Miami tonight for more.

Notre Dame vs Miami odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Miami opened as a 5-point favorite and has since moved down to -4.5. The total opened at 144.5 and has since moved to 142.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Notre Dame vs Miami predictions

Predictions made on 2/2/2022 at2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Notre Dame vs Miami game info

Location: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network

Notre Dame at Miami betting preview


Notre Dame: No injuries to report.
Miami: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Notre Dame has played 5-1 to the Under on totals set at or above tonight's total of 142. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Miami.

Notre Dame vs Miami picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

In our game preview of Monday’s Duke and Notre Dame clash, we noted that Notre Dame stood a realistic chance if it could get good performances from the typically reliable and efficient Dane Goodwin (who averaged 14.6 PPG on 50%/49%/88% shooting splits) and Blake Wesley (14.5 PPG), who needed a bounce-back performance after a recent slump. The two combined for six points on 3 for 22 shooting (with Goodwin going 0-7), and a massive what-if hangs over the Fighting Irish given that they held the Duke offense to just 57 points and had just one double-digit scorer in lieu of Goodwin and Wesley's disappearing act.

It's particularly strange for both to vanish in that game, given Wesley had scored in the double digits in 17 straight games before Monday and Goodwin had done it in every game this season. Wesley has recently also partially made up for his inefficient shooting splits by getting to the line frequently, averaging 8.2 free throw attempts in the six games prior to Monday, but he managed to get there just once against the Blue Devils.

Nevertheless, the Irish live to fight another day and that's exactly what they will have to do on Wednesday night against the ACC-leading Hurricanes. Tonight's matchup is obviously easier than Monday's, but it is certainly no gimmie. Miami has been notoriously great at winning the turnover battle and by punishing that margin with efficient scoring (58th in the nation in field goal percentage). In conference play, Miami ranks first in the ACC in scoring, 3-point percentage, turnovers forced, and turnovers surrendered.

On offense, the Hurricanes are largely led by two shot-creating guards: Kameron McGusty (18.0 PPG) and Isaiah Wong (16.0 PPG). Both shoot 40%+ on 2-point jump shots and McGusty extends his range beyond the arc with a 36.0% clip there. Senior guard Charlie Moore (12.5 PPG) complements McGusty in that respect, with a 39.8% shot from deep as well. The Hurricanes make their bread from deep, ranking 59th in the country with a 36.5% 3-point percentage.

Notre Dame's defense has kept better offenses than Miami's at bay: They held Kentucky (who ranks third in KenPom offense) to 62 points and Duke (15th) to 57 on Monday. In regards to defending the three specifically, the Fighting Irish have allowed just a 31.3% percentage beyond the arc in conference play, which ranks second-best in the ACC. Duke ranks similarly to Miami from deep (69th) and shot just 3-19 (15.8%) on Monday. Miami’s also sent conference opponents to the free throw line just 11.9 times per game (and sent Duke there just three times two nights ago), sitting atop the ACC with that mark.

Notre Dame is entirely equipped to weather the storm.

Prediction: Notre Dame +4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Although Miami is exceptional at taking care of the ball and taking it away from its opponents, it still doesn't manage an appreciable pace. Its 57.3 field goal attempts per game rank 215th in the nation, and Notre Dame averages just 56.0 per game (286th). Both figures are partially a product of an inability to generate second chances through the offensive glass, with both teams averaging just 7.1 offensive rebounds per game (329th).

While Notre Dame has played 8-4 to the Over in their last 12, the story is a bit different when examining totals at or above today's mark of 142: the Fighting Irish have played 5-1 to the Under when the total has been 142 or higher. Miami has played 5-1 to the Under in its last six, with the lone instance of it going Over being the only total across that stretch being set below that same mark (135.5 vs. Virginia Tech).

Prediction: Under 142 (-105)

Best bet

Although Notre Dame lost by 14 against Duke, that game was winnable if you squint hard enough. Goodwin and Wesley combining to shoot 3-22 and chipping in just six points is a first percentile level of performance from the Fighting Irish's top two scorers. The team's 37.2% from three (which is 38th best in the nation) shrinking down to 16.7% that night was also less than ideal.

It's hard to imagine those two turning in a similar performance. Goodwin hasn't sustained his 50%/49% /88% shooting splits by turning in duds and while Blake Wesley isn't anywhere near as efficient, his current shooting slump of 8-42 (19.1%) across the last three games has to come to an end sooner rather than later, right?

With Notre Dame hanging onto tournament hopes, this is one of its last chances to put a quality win on its resume seeing as, after tonight, the Fighting Irish have just two games remaining on their schedule against teams with a winning conference record. A loss tonight all but shuts the door on those chances.

Expect Goodwin, Wesley, and the rest of the Irish to put up a fight (or at least keep it close).

Pick: Notre Dame +4.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

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