Saturday night will see a rivalry renewed as Notre Dame makes the familiar trip to Milwaukee to face fourth-ranked Marquette. The latest college basketball odds have the Golden Eagles as overwhelming favorites to defeat the Fighting Irish.
The 120th meeting between these schools will be the first ever at Fiserv Forum, but it’s going to need the Irish to step up their game if it’s to match some of the classics we’ve seen before. Notre Dame’s sitting at 4-4 but hasn’t been impressive, with a 1-3 record against schools from major conferences.
Marquette followed up a stunning defeat last weekend at Wisconsin by dominating Texas on Wednesday. The Golden Eagles are led by senior Tyler Kolek, who ranks in the Top 40 in assists per game and is shooting better than 45% from outside.
Our college basketball picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Marquette break down this matchup and explain why this iteration of the rivalry isn’t likely to be a close one.
Notre Dame vs Marquette best odds
Notre Dame vs Marquette picks and predictions
Notre Dame’s offense is bad. Like, really bad. It probably needs a stronger word than bad.
Atrocious, perhaps. Yeah, that’s the word.
Why is it so atrocious? For starters, nobody on the team can shoot from the outside. Braeden Shrewsberry has attempted 50 3-point shots through eight games, and he’s made 15. Seven different Fighting Irish players have taken at least 10 from beyond the arc this season, and nobody’s making better than 34% of their efforts.
Leading scorer Markus Burton is averaging 15.1 points per game, but he’s shooting an abysmal 19.2% from beyond the arc on 26 attempts. In Notre Dame’s recent defeats to Miami and South Carolina, he made just one of nine efforts from downtown.
Burton’s committed 30 turnovers versus 31 assists. You might think that the assist-to-turnover ratio is bad, and you’d be right. However, it's also one of the team's better marks. Julian Roper II has recorded only nine assists compared to 15 turnovers, while Tae Davis has five assists and 10 turnovers.
In fact, Burton’s the only Notre Dame player with 10 or more assists this season. Compare that to Marquette, with four players boasting double-digit dimes. Those four also all have positive assist-to-turnover ratios, with Tyler Kolek sporting a 2:1 ratio with 48 assists.
Why is all of this important? Because Marquette’s defense is relentless. Ranked 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Golden Eagles rank 25th in defensive turnover rate and average nearly nine steals per game. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish rank 236th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 248th in turnover rate.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, isn’t able to force turnovers this year. That means no easy baskets in transition for a team struggling badly on offense. The Fighting Irish also aren’t getting to the line for easy points, and they rank 225th in offensive rebound rate.
That’s the one area where Marquette struggles defensively, as the Golden Eagles are 255th in defensive rebound rate. Davis is Notre Dame’s only player averaging more than 5.5 boards per game, but only 17 of those have come at the offensive end — with the team having just 77 in total on the year.
The Irish couldn’t get to 50 points against Miami and scored just 53 in their loss at South Carolina. They’re walking into an amped-up Fiserv Forum on Saturday night and will now face a Marquette defense that allowed just 65 points to Texas on Wednesday. That’s a Texas squad ranked 34th in AOE.
Notre Dame’s not sniffing 65 points, and it’ll be fortunate to even get close to 60. Take the Under on the Irish team total over at DraftKings, whose 60.5 O/U is a point better than any other book as of Saturday morning.
It’ll be the 12th time in 16 away games that the Irish have failed to reach their team total.
My best bet: Notre Dame team total Under 60.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Notre Dame vs Marquette same-game parlay
Notre team total Under 60.5
Marquette -21
Kam Jones Over 2.5 threes
Our same-game parlay keeps us at DraftKings as we look to triple our stake.
Marquette’s offense ranks 12th in adjusted efficiency, while the Irish defense ranks 163rd. Add in the turnovers leading to some easier baskets, and I don’t see the Golden Eagles struggling to cover the spread.
Kam Jones is hitting better than 45% from downtown this season, and he’s made eight of 15 over Marquette’s last two games. Notre Dame ranks 150th in 3-pt % defense, and the extra opportunities from turnovers will allow him ample opportunities to take advantage. We’ll back him to hit three or more in the contest.
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Notre Dame vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis
Notre Dame are 21-point underdogs this evening, a number the public has been moving since it opened Friday night at -19. The Fighting Irish are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, but 4-4 on the season. Meanwhile, Marquette has gone 3-1-1 ATS in its last five and 5-3-1 ATS on the season.
Marquette’s going to limit Notre Dame to under 60 points, and I don’t see the Golden Eagles failing to reach 80. They’re too efficient on offense, will feast on the turnovers, and have already scored 86 or more in four games this season while reaching 71 in every game but one.
The public has also bet the total heavily, pushing the number up to 141.5 as it’s moved by four points from the opening line. This is despite Marquette’s last three games having gone Under, as have six of its last seven. Notre Dame’s last game went Over, ending a run of six straight Unders.
I loved the Over at the opening number, but I’m likely staying away unless it comes back down. Marquette will be able to win easily, but I simply don’t know how much Notre Dame will contribute or how soon Marquette will call off the dogs.
Notre Dame vs Marquette betting trend to know
Notre Dame’s team total has gone Under in 11 of its last 15 road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Marquette.
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Notre Dame vs Marquette game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, December 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Notre Dame vs Marquette key injuries
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