Mississippi vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Close Affair at Rupp Arena

The Mississippi Rebels head to Lexington on Tuesday night to face off against the No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats.

The Rebels are 18-5 in Chris Beard's first year leading the program and they are aiming to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are barely holding on to a spot in the AP Top 25 after dropping four of their last six games. 

College basketball odds opened with the Wildcats as 8.5-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 161.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks for Mississippi vs. Kentucky on February 13.

Mississippi vs Kentucky best odds

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Mississippi vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Mississippi Rebels are coming off a close loss on the road against South Carolina where they scored just 65 points. However, they shot 51% from the field in that contest and the low-scoring performance was due to their inability to get to the free throw line (just seven attempts) and a sluggish tempo.

Now they face a Kentucky Wildcats side that plays at the 14th fastest tempo in the country and ranks just 125th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. 

This is a highly-talented Kentucky squad but their poor defense has been killing them as we saw last weekend when they lost 89-85 to Gonzaga in Lexington. Since the start of the New Year, the Wildcats have allowed 84.6 points per game while ranking 179th in adjusted defensive efficiency and sitting outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and defensive rebounding rate.

There isn't an area of the floor where the Wildcats have defended well and they've particularly struggled to defend at midrange and in transition. The Rebels are 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and they attack from midrange at the eighth-highest frequency while ranking 28th in transition frequency. 

This is an efficient Rebels attack that passes extremely well, limits turnovers, and shoots a sizzling 38.7% from beyond the arc. Although the Wildcats are a respectable 90th in opponent three-point percentage (32.3%) their efficiency ratings against catch and shoot threes (210th) and off the dribble threes (277th) indicate they're allowing high quality attempts from deep.

The Rebels also have cracks on defense but their center tandem of Moussa Cisse and Jamarion Sharp does a great job of defending the rim with Mississippi ranking fifth in the country in block rate. Ultimately their offense is what will lead them to a cover against defensively inept Kentucky here.

My best bet: Mississippi +8.5 (-110 at bet365)

Mississippi vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Mississippi +8.5

Over 161.5

Matthew Murrell Over 16.5 points

+410 at DraftKings

This versatile Mississippi attack has three players averaging more than 14.0 ppg, led by Matthew Murrell (16.8 ppg). Murrell has dropped 17+ points in 11 of his last 14 games and he's capable of scoring from every level. He's especially effective from mid range where the Wildcats are just 276th in the country in defensive efficiency per ShotQualityBets.

The total has slimmed from the opening number of 164 to 161.5 but I'm going against the line movement, especially since it looks like Tre Mitchell and D.J. Wagner could return to the lineup for Kentucky.

Keep in mind that Mississippi has also struggled in its own end ranking 130th in adjusted defensive efficiency while the high-flying Wildcats are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Over has also gone an incredible 12-1 in Kentucky's last 13 games at home. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Kentucky at -8.5 with the O/U at 164. While the spread has remained the same, money has come in on the Under slimming the total to 161.5. 

The Wildcats are coming off an 89-85 loss to Gonzaga and are now just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. That said, they've been missing forward Tre Mitchell for the last two games while guard D.J. Wagner has missed the last three and both practiced yesterday. 

The Rebels are coming off back-to-back defeats but they are still 4-1 ATS in their previous five.

Mississippi vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Kentucky.

Mississippi vs Kentucky game info

Mississippi vs Kentucky key injuries

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