Michigan vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Left Back in America

Michigan and Kentucky will head to London to put on a show for the international audience Sunday afternoon. With both offenses not living up to expectations thus far, our college basketball picks have all eyes on the Under.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 9:16 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Oscar Tshiebwe Kentucky Wildcats  College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A game that was supposed to happen in 2020 will finally take place as two storied college basketball programs will meet in London, England when the Michigan Wolverines take on the Kentucky Wildcats. 

Both Michigan and Kentucky have had a disappointing start to the season compared to expectations. The Wolverines are 5-2 coming off a home loss to third-ranked Virginia, and the Wildcats are also 5-2 with both losses coming in their only tough games thus far.

Which program will perform better in front of an international audience? 

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Kentucky on Sunday, December 4 to find out.

Michigan vs Kentucky best odds

Michigan vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Kentucky started the season ranked No. 4 in the country and had a ton of promise with a mix of both stellar freshmen and experienced stars — including reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. However, the Wildcats have struggled in their two tests to start the season. 

The offense seems to be the major problem for Kentucky. While its numbers say one thing, it is skewed by racking up points with its athleticism against lesser opponents. It needed double overtime to reach 77 points against the Spartans and only put up 72 against a bad Gonzaga defense. 

The Wildcats are not coming in with great form on offense either. They only managed to score 60 points on Tuesday night against Bellarmine, who allowed 77.8 points per game in their previous four contests. They also only scored 21 points in the first half of that game. Michigan will certainly be looking to take advantage of the lack of an offensive scheme. 

Only two opponents have scored more than 70 points on the Wolverines this season. They are also strong at forcing turnovers and not allowing their opponents to get to the free-throw line. Michigan forces 10.9 turnovers per game and only allows 15.0 free throw attempts per contest. 

Offensively, the Wolverines have their own issues with shooting and holding onto the ball. Both teams are going to force turnovers and make it tough for the other to get off good shots. Combine this with the possibility that there could be some major jet lag from having to travel overseas, and the Under just seems like the perfect play for this game. 

My best bet: Under 143.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Michigan vs Kentucky spread analysis

If we go strictly by talent, there is no doubt that Kentucky is the more talented team. Tshiebwe is the obvious leader, but four other players average double-digit points. Eleven players on the roster average double-digit minutes per game and could be counted on for any given match. 

Meanwhile, Michigan relies heavily on Hunter Dickinson and Jett Howard for its scoring. It also has just seven players that average double-digit minutes, and only the starting five play significant minutes. This will be where Kentucky can take advantage.  

The Wildcats will throw multiple bodies at Dickinson in the post with Tshiebwe, Lance Ware, and Jacob Toppin all able to defend the post. Michigan is not a great rebounding team and will be facing the best rebounder in the country, making it tough for the Wolverines to put up points without hitting some outside shots.

Kentucky is 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. While there may not be a ton of proof around a solid offense for the Wildcats, you must think their depth and athleticism will be able to find their way against Michigan’s lack of depth. Kentucky should be able to pull away in the second half and win this one by double digits. 

Michigan vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

We talked about Kentucky’s offense being a problem and a good reason to like the Under here, but their defense makes a strong case as well. In regulation, it allowed 62 points to Michigan State. So, only counting regulation, it allows 60.7 ppg.

The length and depth of the Wildcats' roster create problems for any opponent, especially ones that need to get open shots or layups to score. Michigan only shoots 32.9% from 3-point range and thus only averages 76.0 ppg.

With the Wolverines unlikely to get anywhere near 70 points in this contest, I just do not see how this game can go Over the total. This should be an easy Under. 

Michigan vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Kentucky.

Michigan vs Kentucky game info

Location: The O2 Arena, London, England
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

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