Michigan State vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Jones Tough to Keep Up With

The Michigan State Spartans face a steep learning curve in Minneapolis between Thursday’s win against Minnesota and Friday’s meeting with the March Madness odds contender Purdue Boilermakers. The Gophers’ defense had been gradually failing in recent weeks, most exposed from deep and via ball movement.

The Spartans made the most of those weaknesses to win their first game of this Big Ten Tournament bracket, but the Boilermakers have no such weaknesses. And with the presumptive Player of the Year in Zach Edey, they may turn the first game of the day into a rout.

We will not commit to an alternate line for these conference tournament odds, but it was considered in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Michigan State vs Purdue on March 15, with tip set for 12:00 ET.

Michigan State vs Purdue best odds

Michigan State vs Purdue picks and predictions

Minnesota’s defensive weaknesses showed themselves on Friday, creating a one-day salve for Michigan State’s offense. The Spartans hit 5-of-8 shots from deep and assisted on 63.3% of their baskets, both numbers ahead of already problematic defensive trends for the Gophers.

Purdue does not outright excel in either category, but it ranked in the middle of the pack of the Big Ten in both regards, decent enough to suspect it will not further the remedy for a Michigan State offense that had fallen more than 100 spots in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers in February and March action.

Furthermore, the Spartans struggle on the interior, even if they take too many shots from inside the arc. Hitting only 47.7% of 2-point field goal attempts will doom most offenses, let alone ones that take more than 70% of their field goals from that range. Both those rates ranked No. 11 in the Big Ten — to be more clear, taking 70.1% of field goal attempts from 2-point range was the fourth-highest rate in the conference, counting that as No. 11 is because it is, in 2024, a bad quality — part of why Michigan State’s effective field goal percentage also ranked No. 11.

If Thursday’s matchup was the exact chance for the Spartans’ offense to look competent for the first time in weeks, then Friday’s is the corresponding dose of reality.

Without a humming offense, Michigan State has no chance of hanging with Purdue. The Boilermakers enjoy the most efficient offense in the country no matter who you ask, Bart Torvik or Ken Pomeroy. Casual fans may assume that is entirely because of Edey, but the 7-foot-4 senior is only a piece of Purdue’s attack.

Four rotation pieces are dangerous from beyond the arc, making it difficult to properly defend Edey without giving up those shots, and the Boilermakers capitalize on that. They made 41.8% of their threes in Big Ten play and assisted on 64.2% of their made field goals.

That is a prototypical recipe to have the highest effective field goal percentage in the conference.

The Spartans will make the NCAA Tournament. That was the case before Thursday’s win. But they will not make a run in the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue is simply too good.

A 7-point spread is perfectly reasonable to start Friday, but do not be surprised if the Boilermakers blow the game wide open. One team makes its threes, the other does not like taking them. To make those thoughts even worse for Michigan State, it encourages looks from deep.

Purdue will be only too accurate when it takes them.

My best bet: Purdue -7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Michigan State vs Purdue same-game parlay

Purdue -8

Michigan State team total Under 67.5

Lance Jones Over 2.5 made threes

+450 at DraftKings

Emphasize how bad Michigan State’s offense has been of late, before Thursday’s decent showing. Up until Feb. 19, the Spartans’ ranked No. 33 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Torvik, averaging 115.4 points per 100 possessions. In the final five games of their season, that fell to — brace yourself — No. 191 at 105.1 points per 100 possessions.

That's a small sample size, but the drop of 10.3 points per 100 possessions is so stark as to counter that statistical worry.

One okay game against Minnesota in a mostly-empty Target Center does not change that reality. Betting the Michigan State team total Under was strongly considered for the above Best Bet.

Tossing Lance Jones in to complete this same-game parlay is based entirely on the Spartans’ defensive penchant of encouraging 3-pointers. In conference play, 40.9% of field goal attempts against Michigan State were from deep. And that is not a defensive approach that Tom Izzo will want to abandon today.

The Spartans’ best hopes of an upset are contingent on Purdue simply missing threes, focusing the defense on slowing Edey. That should give Jones plenty of looks, averaging more than six attempts per game from deep. That could become eight today, and if so, making three is entirely reasonable for the 36.4% shooter.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

Late on Thursday, Purdue opened as a 6.5-point favorite, a number that quickly reached -7 and began to dabble at -7.5 in Friday’s earliest hours. Some thought was put into an alternate spread for a best bet, the Boilermakers arguably deserving to be favored by more than even 7.5.

Two weeks ago, they were 10-point favorites when hosting the Spartans. Peeling 3.5 points off that spread for Purdue’s home-court advantage would have made that a -6.5 number today, where this indeed opened. But that rather heavily discounts how bad Michigan State has looked in the last month.

The total opened at 143.5 and has not notably moved, some books falling to 143 and a few trying 142.5. Two games in two days is not inherently a reason to doubt the Spartans’ legs, but it could be argued the 12 ET tip should induce a slow start. If buying into that, then know the first half total is 67.

Michigan State vs Purdue betting trend to know

Five of Michigan State’s last six games cashed their Unders before Thursday’s conference tournament debut. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.

Michigan State vs Purdue game info

Michigan State vs Purdue key injuries

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