Michigan State vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lions Won't Back Down Against Spartans

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Spartans have both struggled with consistency this season. With PSU at home and possibly getting key rotation players back, our college basketball picks believe the Lions will at least keep things close.

Feb 14, 2024 • 11:51 ET • 4 min read
Kanye Clary Penn State NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a hot date on Valentine’s Day with no love lost between PSU and its Big Ten rivals, the Michigan State Spartans.

Both programs are trying to break into the Top 4 of the conference before the end of the regular season.

The Spartans shook up the Big Ten with a resume win over Illinois in East Lansing on Saturday and college basketball odds don’t expect a letdown spot inside the Bryce Jordan Center, with MSU laying the points on the road tonight.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for Michigan State vs. Penn State and give my free college basketball picks for February 14.

Michigan State vs Penn State best odds

Michigan State vs Penn State picks and predictions

Penn State watched a potential four-game winning streak evaporate in the second half of Sunday’s loss at Northwestern. Yet, despite what was a dismal performance from the Nittany Lions, they only lost by five and covered as 7-point road underdogs.

Penn State shot just 44% from the field, coughed up the ball 11 times, and sent the Wildcats to the foul line 27 times. A return to the Bryce Jordan Center could be just what Mike Rhoades’ guys need to get back on track.

The Lions average almost 79 points per game at home and have really thrived on offense in recent homestands, which have been few and far between over the past two weeks with PSU playing only one home game in the past four contests.

It welcomes a Michigan State team struggling with consistency, especially on the road. The Spartans have been able to string together wins in East Lansing but then faceplant when they hit the highway. 

Tom Izzo’s team is set up for a sizable letdown spot after picking up a resume win over ranked Illinois last weekend. Michigan State had everything clicking in that 88-80 home win, but that scoring clip takes a nosedive outside of the Breslin Center, with a 10-point decline in production on the road.

Penn State can outpace MSU on the offensive end if Kanye Clary can find his legs in his third game back from injury. The team’s leading scorer played only 14 minutes vs. Northwestern and finished scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting while coming off the bench for the second straight contest.

Coach Rhoades told the media they’ve been playing with different lineups with Clary recovering but that, “we also need him at his best”. Tonight’s home stand vs. Michigan State is a vital game to PSU’s tournament prospects and the first of four straight Quad-1 contests. 

The Nittany Lions could also have key rotation players Puff Johnson and Demetrius Lilley back in the frontcourt on Wednesday night, which will help with deep and interior defense.

Penn State took a 31-point ass waxing in its last run-in with Michigan State but is a much different team than the one that made the trip to the Breslin Center on January 4. The Nittany Lions were a chilly 32% from the floor in that loss, including hitting just 3 of 29 attempts from beyond the arc.

Expect Penn State to build upon its offensive improvements and give Michigan State everything it has in a crucial conference clash on Valentine’s Day.

My best bet: Penn State +4.5 (-132 at PROLINE+)

Michigan State vs Penn State same-game parlay

Penn State +4.5

Over 145.5

The Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the year and could see more of leading scorer Kanye Clary tonight.

Michigan State snapped out of an offensive funk vs. Illinois and there is a ton of backcourt talent on both teams. Expect plenty of points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Michigan State vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis

After a big home victory over ranked Illinois on the weekend, Michigan State opened as big as a 4.5-point road favorite for tonight’s conference clash. 

Early money has been on the home side, trimming this spread to as low as MSU -3.5 as of Wednesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 52% of picks are on the Spartans as short road chalk.

Tom Izzo’s team is always a force in East Lansing, leading to an 11-4-1 ATS count as a host, but Michigan State is just 1-4-1 ATS in its six true road games. As for Penn State, it’s faced a challenging schedule in February with three of its last four contests coming on the road. The Nittany Lions won the first three of those outings but had that streak snuffed out at Northwestern on Sunday. 

Tonight’s Over/Under total opened at 145.5 points and has dropped to as low as 144 at some books. Covers Consensus shows 56% of early picks siding with the Under.

Michigan State is 11-13 Over/Under on the year, with a 3-3 O/U mark as a visitor. Saturday’s home win over Illinois finished Over the closing total of 144.5 and snapped a three-game Under run from the Green and White.

Overs have been the preferred bet for PSU, boasting a 14-9-1 O/U count, including a 6-5-1 O/U record at home. The Nittany Lions offensive surge in wins over Iowa and Indiana topped the total, but Sunday’s flat 68-63 effort against NW resulted in an Under finish against a closing total of 147.5 points.

These Big Ten foes faced off in East Lansing back on January 4, with MSU blasting Penn State 92-61 as a 13.5-point home favorite. The Spartans shot better than 56% from the field and had four starters in double figures, including 20+ point efforts from Tyson Walker and Malik Hall. Those helped Over backers cash against a closing total of 146.5 points.

Michigan State vs Penn State betting trend to know

Michigan State is 12-11 SU but just 8-15 ATS (35%) as a road favorite in conference play since the 2019-20 season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Penn State.

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Michigan State vs Penn State game info

Location: Bryce Jordan Center, State College, PA
Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

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