The shackles are off. The Memphis Tigers and South Florida Bulls will get to run tonight.
The league-leading USF Bulls have the No. 20 pace in the country. Memphis is not far behind at No. 59. But they’ve both had a steady diet of slow, plodding AAC teams.
Tonight, no one will be trying to make it a half-court rock fight. That’s why my Memphis vs. South Florida predictions and college basketball picks looks for the game to go over on Thursday, February 19.
Memphis vs South Florida prediction
Memphis vs South Florida best bet: Over 159.5 (-115)
Both teams want to run. The South Florida Bulls last 10 games have averaged 161.5 points, and six of their last eight had a points cutoff higher than the one for the Memphis Tigers.
The Tigers have had five Overs in the last six, and that’s against a schedule that’s included two teams ranked in the 300s in pace and two in the 200s.
Neither team is particularly good at shooting, but they’re among the nation’s best at offensive rebounding to help erase many of those missed shots.
Memphis also makes and forces a large number of turnovers, so look for a sloppy, high-scoring game.
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Memphis vs South Florida same-game parlay
USF is only 1-4 in its last five as a favorite with a line this large. The Bulls are only 6-5 ATS this season as a home favorite and have a worse ATS record in all games than Memphis. The Tigers are 3-2 ATS this season when they’ve been this large an underdog.
Aaron Bradshaw is averaging 11.5 points per game over the last month and has hit double figures six times in the last eight.
Memphis vs South Florida SGP
- Memphis +8.5
- Over 159.5 points
- Aaron Bradshaw Over 10.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Memphis wins the battle in the paint
Dug McDaniel leads Memphis with 4.6 assists and would have more if the team could shoot better. Even feeding a group that ranks No. 281 in the country in shooting, he’s had three or more assists in 16 straight games.
Izaiyah Nelson has been a bully this season, but the 6-foot-10 senior struggles when he’s not the biggest man on the floor. He managed just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting with four fouls against 6-foot-11 Devin Williams last game. He’ll have to cope with multiple seven-footers against Memphis.
Memphis vs South Florida SGP
- Over 159.5 points
- Aaron Bradshaw Over 10.5 points
- Dug McDaniel Over 3.5 assists
- Izaiyah Nelson Under 16.5 points
Memphis vs South Florida odds
- Spread: Memphis +8.5 (-110) | South Florida -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +320 | South Florida -400
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)
Memphis vs South Florida betting trend to know
Memphis has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. South Florida.
How to watch Memphis vs South Florida
| Location | Yuengling Center, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, February 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Memphis vs South Florida key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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