If your March Madness survivor entry has made it to the Final Four, you deserve sincere congratulations. It may have been the chalk decision to lean on Arizona and Michigan on the right-hand side of your bracket, but navigating the left-hand side puts you among the very few.
Your remaining question this weekend, as you pursue threading this three-week needle, is, do you need to be a contrarian, or can you default to the chalk choices?
I aim to offer guidance for these treacherous March Madness picks below.
Best Final Four Madness survivor picks
Illinois Fighting Illini
Arizona WildcatsOdds from bet365, one of our best betting apps. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
Chalk: Illinois
The chalk choice could be more accurately described as “The left-hand side of your bracket.” You used either the Illinois Fighting Illini or the UConn Huskies to advance this far in your survivor league. You have only one of them available, and that's who you should take if you are in a pool with only a handful of survivors alive or if you are in firm control of a tiebreaker.
Whoever wins the other national semifinal will be favored by multiple buckets in the national championship game, perhaps even by five points.
Taking Illinois (or UConn) is the most likely path for predicting Monday night correctly, as well. But in doing so, you may have company in your survivor pool. This is the chalky choice. Make it only if you are comfortable with your standing in a small pool, if you hold that tiebreaker edge, or if you do not flinch at the thought of splitting a pot.
Contrarian: Arizona
Again, the more accurate description would be “the right-hand side of your bracket.” You used either the Michigan Wolverines or the Arizona Wildcats to advance thus far.
Taking the right-hand side of your bracket in the Final Four serves to suggest an upset on Monday night, where you'll be forced to take the winner of UConn-Illinois. That is the factor that induces the contrarian approach.
Is such an upset plausible? Of course.
Illinois might have the most talented player on the court in freshman star Keaton Wagler, not to mention the most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom. And UConn head coach Dan Hurley is on the verge of changing the annual spring calendar to “February, March, Hurley, May” from “January, February, Izzo, April.”
This contrarian approach is not one intent on defeat. It is looking for the greatest possible reward. If your survivor pool still has 6+ entries afloat, if you are trailing in the tiebreaker, or if you simply dream of glory, then the contrarian approach may be your needed tactic.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
