The USC Trojans, fresh off a 16-point victory, will face off against the Kansas Jayhawks in the Round of 32 on Monday.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close battle as college betting lines opened with Southern California as a slim 1-point favorite and the Over/Under at 134.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for USC vs. Kansas on Monday, March 22.
USC vs Kansas odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel opened this contest at Southern Cal -1 Saturday night, got to -1.5 a couple of times, then fell to pick 'em late this morning. As of 7:15 p.m. ET, USC is back at -1 on two-way action, with 54 percent of tickets on the Jayhawks and 51 percent of money on the Trojans. The total moved from 134 to 135.5 to 135, with the Over grabbing 84 percent of bets/83 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameUSC Trojans vs Kansas Jayhawks betting preview
Injuries
USC: None.
Kansas: Jalen Wilson F (Probable), Tristan Enaruna G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Kansas.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Interestingly, Kansas enters this game as a slight underdog despite having better March Madness odds of winning the NCAA Tournament than USC (+4000 for the Jayhawks compared to +6000 for the Trojans). The Jayhawks have gone through an up-and-down season but were playing their best ball of the year heading into the Big 12 Tournament... then COVID hit.
The Jayhawks' second-leading scorer and rebounder David McCormack was one of two players that tested positive and Kansas eventually withdrew from the tourney. McCormack rejoined the Jayhawks for their first-round matchup with Eastern Washington on Saturday and was a massive reason they took over in the second half. The big man scored 22 points and added nine rebounds in a 93-84 Kansas win.
Starting forward Jalen Wilson (12.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game) missed that game due to his own positive test but is probable for Monday, with coach Bill Self saying he hopes to give him key minutes. If Wilson plays that would be a big boost to a Jayhawks lineup that likes to spread the ball around and defends well at every level.
The Trojans are coming off a 72-56 win over Drake in the first round on Saturday. They played their typical brand of basketball in that contest, relying on big men Evan Mosley and Isaiah Mobley to get buckets while their stingy defense held the Bulldogs to just 29 percent shooting from the field.
USC is 4-1 SU in its last five games but just 3-6 ATS in its previous nine contests. And there were some troubling performances during that span — besides a pair of defeats against a good Colorado squad, they lost decisively to Arizona and Utah, edged UCLA by a single point, and were pushed into overtime against Utah in another contest.
The Jayhawks, meanwhile, have been on a tear lately, going 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. That stretch includes quality wins over Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, while their only loss came in overtime on the road against a very strong Texas Longhorns team.
While the Trojans have a pair of terrific big men, their guard play has been subpar. Now they face a Kansas team that has the bigs to battle down low and the perimeter players to pressure the Trojan ballhandlers and harass their outside shooters. Back the Jayhawks.
PREDICTION: Kansas +1 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
USC center Evan Mobley took home Pac-12 Player of the Year honors after averaging 16.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. His biggest impact might be on the defensive end of the floor, with the Trojans' towering size frustrating opposing shooters. USC ranks sixth in the country in blocks per game (5.3) and second in opponent two-point field goal percentage (42.2).
That said, the Trojans haven't had the same dominance on offense. They rank outside the Top-200 schools in the country in assists per field goal while sitting outside the Top 250 in three-pointers made per game. That poor ball movement and outside shooting will make it difficult to rack up a ton of points against a very strong Kansas defense.
The Jayhawks rank eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and while they're coming off a game where they surrendered 84 points, expect them to bounce back to their usual stingy defense Monday.
Both of these teams play at a slower pace, with the Trojans ranking 240th in the nation in adjusted tempo. With Kansas going 6-2 to the Under in its last eight games, take the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 134 (-110)
First-half pick
Kansas and Southern California both had a shaky first half in their first-round matchups. The Jayhawks trailed 46-38, while the Trojans had a slim 40-37 lead.
That said, they both impressed on the offensive end of the court and shot the ball well early. It was their surprisingly lackadaisical defense in the early going that led to their opponents also lighting it up.
With the first-half Over/Under set at just 62 for Monday, don't be surprised if both teams come out firing once again before ramping up the defensive intensity in the second half. Take the 1H Over.
PREDICTION: First Half Over 62 (-110)
USC vs Kansas betting card
- Kansas +1 (-110)
- Under 134 (-110)
- First Half Over 62 (-110)
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