The biggest college basketball betting line of the second round of the NCAA Tournament belongs to the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who opened as whopping 14.5-point favorites against the Oklahoma Sooners.
The undefeated Zags have been steamrolling opponents this season and oddsmakers expect them to continue their dominant play against a Sooners squad missing one of its best players.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga on Monday, March 22, with tipoff at 2:40 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma vs Gonzaga odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonGonzaga moved from -14 to -14.5 at BetMGM Nevada. "We need Oklahoma for just a little bit," said Jeff Stoneback, who oversees BetMGM's Vegas sportsbooks. "Ticket count is 3/1 Gonzaga and money is 5/1 Gonzaga. But these games today are not being bet nearly as much as the last couple of days. There's the Monday factor, a lot of people have gone back home from Vegas, back to work today. And bettors got beat up a bit the last three days." The total is up a tick from 154 to 154.5, but Stoneback said there's no real decision there.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOklahoma Sooners vs Gonzaga Bulldogs betting preview
Injuries
Oklahoma: De'Vion Harmon (Out).
Gonzaga: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Gonzaga.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Gonzaga is the No. 1-ranked team in the country, with the best March Madness title odds, for good reason. The Zags are coming off a 98-55 cakewalk over Norfolk State in the first round where they easily covered the 33-point spread placed in front of them. They put all their talents on full display in that contest: Ball movement, lights-out shooting, length, depth, and underrated defensive play.
This is a team that ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, while ranking seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. That said, laying 14.5 points is no small order, especially when you consider that their spread is nearly twice as high as the second-biggest line of the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Oklahoma is having an up-and-down season but was ranked among the Top-10 schools in the country as little as four weeks ago. However, the Sooners closed out their regular season with four consecutive losses and are now just 1-7 ATS in their last eight contests. Oklahoma is fresh off a gritty 72-68 win over Missouri after finding out that second-leading scorer De'Vion Harmon would miss at least the first two rounds of the tourney after testing positive for COVID-19.
The Sooners don't really stand out in any one area of the game but they are solid on both ends of the floor. While they have suffered their share of losses in recent months they have been competitive in virtually all of them. They lost a pair of close contests to rival Oklahoma State, fell to Kansas by seven points, Texas by four, Texas Tech by five, and Kansas State by five (probably the worst loss on their resume).
Gonzaga has been breezing by foes but besides a 23-point rout of Virginia on boxing day, they're typically not beating their best opponents by 15+ points. Their last two wins against BYU came by 10 and 11 points, while victories against West Virginia, Iowa, and Kansas were all between 5-12 points.
The Sooners don't shoot themselves in the foot, rarely turning the ball over and committing among the fewest fouls in the country. It might not feel close, but they should do enough to cover the spread.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Even without Harmon, the Sooners should be solid on offense with guard Elijah Harkless stepping up with 16 points against Mizzou. They're not a great outside shooting team and don't rack up points in transition, but they are efficient in the half court. They also boast an All-Big 12 first team member in guard Austin Reaves, who leads the team with 17.9 points and 4.8 assists per game.
While the Sooners are pretty good at putting up points, the Zags are off the charts. Led by Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga shoots a scorching 55.1 percent from the field while averaging 92.9 ppg—both numbers good for best in the country. The Zags also play at a very fast pace, ranking fourth in the nation in adjusted tempo.
Gonzaga tends to play higher-scoring games against quality foes, going 23-9 O/U in its last 32 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Zags also have a recent history of cashing Overs at this time of the year, going above the total in 13 of their previous 19 NCAA Tournament games. Back the Over again.
PREDICTION: Over 154 (-110)
First half pick
We mentioned that the Sooners have stayed competitive in almost all of their losses but that hasn't always been true in the first half of those contests.
They trailed Texas by ten points at halftime and had ugly first-half deficits against both Kansas and Texas Tech, where they scored just 15 and 18 points, respectively. They were also outscored 42-25 by Baylor in the first 20 minutes when the two sides met up at the beginning of January.
Gonzaga has been all about fast starts, posting an average first-half margin of plus-14.2 ppg, easily the best mark in the country. Take the Zags on the first-half spread.
PREDICTION: First half Gonzaga -8 (-110)
Oklahoma vs Gonzaga betting card
- Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
- Over 154 (-110)
- First half Gonzaga -8 (-110)
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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?
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