March Madness 2023 Brackets and Staff Picks: One Step (and Seed) at a Time

Selection Sunday is done, the brackets are filled, and the first round of March Madness tips off Thursday.

There is no shortage of people dissecting March Madness odds and sharing their March Madness bracket, but it's now time for the most important March Madness picks of all — the official plays from the Covers staff!

We've polled our trusted college basketball betting minds for their favorite plays for the Big Dance, and they came back with some big, bold picks including an intriguing longshot for Most Outstanding Player (we're looking at you, Marcus Carr). Find out below what directions our crew is going this year — and see if their March Madness staff brackets resemble anything you've cobbled together yourself!

March Madness 2023 picks

Writer	Winner	MOP	Cinderella
Jason Logan	Kansas	Gradey Dick	Duke
Rohit Ponnaiya	Kansas	Marcus Carr	Charleston
Chris Hatfield	Houston	Jerace Walker	Penn State
Ed Scimia	UCLA	Brandon Miller	Utah State
JD Yonke	Houston	Marcus Sasser	Drake
Jared Hochman	Texas	Marcus Carr	Kent State

Covers staff March Madness picks

Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst (@CoversJLo)

Final Four:  Duke (East),  Kansas,  Indiana (Midwest),  Arizona (South)

No program has gone back-to-back with national titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007 but the Kansas Jayhawks:

• Are loaded with pro-ready talent
• Have a Hall of Fame coach in Bill Self
• Possess tournament experience
• Can win grinders and track meets alike.

They aren’t without their foibles, which include a lack of depth and here-and-there 3-point shooting, but Kansas makes opponents work for everything on both ends of the floor, moving the ball for a high assist rate while sitting No. 7 in the all-holy KenPom defensive efficiency.

Jalen Wilson seems like the logical choice after winning Big 12 Player of the Year and anchoring KU’s run at back-to-back 'ships. However, I like freshman standout Gradey Dick (16/1) as a live “Most Outstanding Player” contender. The 6-foot-8 guard, who is projected to go Top 10 in the upcoming NBA Draft, is a matchup nightmare and his 3-point shooting could make or break Kansas. When he’s on from distance, he fills the most notable gap for this KU attack.

My bracket is pretty chalky with no seed larger than a No. 5 advancing to the Elite Eight... and that No. 5 is the Duke Blue Devils, which doesn’t exactly fit Cinderella’s slipper considering the Blue Devils’ history in March. However, Jon Scheyer is coaching in Mike Krzyzewski’s shadow and Duke didn’t look like Duke until Valentine’s Day.

Since then, the Blue Devils have rolled off nine straight wins: Momentum can mean everything in March and the Dukies have that plus a surplus of talent and a defense that is digging in at the right time — so go ahead and cram Duke’s big ole Size 13 into that glass slipper.

See Jason's full March Madness bracket.

Rohit Ponnaiya, Betting Analyst (@Covers_Ro)

Final Four:  Duke (East),  Kansas,  Texas (Midwest),  Alabama (South)

It might seem boring to pick a No. 1 seed (and the defending champs) as my team to win it all, especially in an NCAA Tournament which looks so wide open. However, considering the last five (and 12 of the previous 16) champions were No. 1 seeds, it makes plenty of sense to lean towards those schools.

Purdue has major issues with offensive consistency around Zach Edey. Alabama is the No. 1-overall seed, after significantly improving its defense from last season, but that might be a mirage created by playing in the offensively inept SEC. The Final Four takes place in the Houston Cougars' backyard, but facing subpar opponents in the AAC means they aren't as battle-tested as the Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas has racked up an incredible 17 Quadrant 1 wins and ground out victories in the toughest conference in the country. The Jayhawks are extremely efficient on both ends of the floor, boast a lineup loaded with experience, and have one of the best coaches around in Bill Self — they're also just as capable of thriving in a fast-paced transition game as they are at playing a half-court contest.

When it comes to the MOP Award, many of the recent winners weren't even considered the best player on their respective teams — and a couple of them (Donte DiVincenzo and Luke Hancock) were afterthoughts at the start of the tourney. So don't rule out some of the massive long shots, especially if their school has a legitimate shot at winning the title.

That has me loving the value of Texas Longhorns point guard Marcus Carr at +2,900. He averaged 17.1 points, 4.0 assists, and 1.7 steals per game, while shooting 45.1% from the floor and 38.4% from the deep, through the first 27 games of the year. He averaged just 11.1 ppg on 32.1% shooting in his last seven games but broke out of that shooting slump in the Longhorns' Big-12 championship win vs. Kansas.

Texas could definitely make a championship run — and would be playing in front of home-state fans if it made the Final Four.

As for my cinderella, San Diego State has been a staple of March Madness... but it hasn't made it past the First Round during the Brian Dutcher era and should be on upset watch against the No. 12 seed Charleston Cougars.

The Aztecs have scored fewer than 68 points in each of their last five games, which is bad news against a Charleston team that is 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and dominated the Colonial Athletic Association.

The Cougars are also 18th in offensive efficiency, with all five starters averaging double-digit points, plus they rank ninth in the country in 3-pointers per game.

If Charleston heats up from beyond the arc, it could upset SDSU — and possibly another struggling offensive team in Virginia in the following round.

See Rohit's full March Madness bracket.

Chris Hatfield, College basketball contributor (@_ChrisHatfield)

Final Four:  Marquette (East),  UCLA (West),  Houston (Midwest),  Creighton (South)

What happened in the American Athletic Conference championship may sour some on the Houston Cougars, but it hasn’t moved me. That was a product of conference familiarity and the Cougs being battered without the services of star Marcus Sasser. 

Houston checks the metrics boxes. Over the last month, Houston has been playing like the third-best team in the country, according to BartTorvik, and spent most of the season at No.1. It ranks in the Top 25 of KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency. It has an elite coach in Kelvin Sampson, who has 18 tournament appearances, advancing to the second weekend six times and appearing in two Final Fours.

He's the only coach in the Midwest region with multiple Final Fours, plus the Cougs have a favorable draw: A potential Sweet 16 matchup looms against Indiana, which does a lot of things well, but nothing really well. After that, they could see Texas, which is 229th in defensive rebounding — that seems like a nightmare issue vs. a team that has been a Top 5 offensive rebounding program for four straight seasons.

Once in the Final Four, they’ll have the luxury of playing games in front of a very pro-Houston crowd. Roll Cougs. 

Freshman forward Jerace Walker has had his inconsistencies throughout the season, but he’s raised his level in some of the bigger games for Houston this season, making him a candidate to shine under the biggest lights of March.

A potential NBA lottery pick, with playmaking ability on both ends of the floor, Walker's ability to move at his size (6-foot-8, 240 lbs) is unreal to watch and makes him able to defend multiple positions, single-handedly changing games. The defensive game is his bread and butter — you won’t find many freshmen with over 30 blocks and steals on such a good team — but on the offensive end, he’s a nightmare for players to defend on the elbow as most teams don’t have a player with that size and lateral quickness. 

If the Cougs win it all, there’s a high likelihood of Sasser getting the honors... but where’s the fun in that? Give me Walker at slightly longer odds.

My bracket has more than one Cinderella team, but I want to focus on my favorite: The Penn State Nittany Lions. 

Don’t be shocked by PSU's run to the Big Ten championship game; its unorthodox style of play makes the Nittany Lions an extremely dangerous team in a tournament setting — particularly on a short turnaround.

They can limit possessions and never get out of who they are, which we saw in a second-half comeback against Purdue in the Big Ten final. ShotQuality actually grades them as an elite shot-making team... but also the one that takes some of the worse shots on a per-possession basis.

What happens if PSU improves on some of those shot choices, even a little bit? Penn State also has an elite guard in Jalen Pickett, who is too physical for smaller guards and can blow past slower ones.

See Chris' full March Madness bracket.

Ed Scimia, College basketball contributor (@erscimia)

Final Four:  Tennessee (East),  UCLA (West),  Houston (Midwest),  Alabama (South)

I was torn between three teams when filling out my bracket, all of which reached my projected Final Four.

The Houston Cougars may be the best team in the country on paper, but without enough experience against elite teams, I can’t see them stringing together six wins against this field. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the overall No. 1 seed... but they’ve lost two of their last nine, with two wins in that span coming in overtime.

It’s not much, but we’re picking nits here between the top squads, and that leaves me to choose the UCLA Bruins as my champion this year. The Bruins were riding a 12-game winning streak before suffering a two-point loss to the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday. Defense wins championships, and KenPom has UCLA as the single best team in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

For the Most Outstanding Player, however, I'm actually looking toward the Tide. Zach Edey may be the most dominant player in the field, but I don’t see Purdue reaching the final weekend — Brandon Miller has been the best freshman in the country and will continue his excellence while leading Alabama to the finals.

My Cinderella pick is the No. 10 seed in the South, the Utah State Aggies, who have slid under the radar but have the talent to give Arizona a battle in the second round — and make a deep run if they can get by the Wildcats.

See Ed's full March Madness bracket.

JD Yonke, College basketball contributor (@YonkersCFB)

Final Four:  Duke (East),  UCLA (West),  Houston (Midwest),  Alabama (South)

Very brave of me to select the best team in the country to cut down nets, right?

Houston has been analytically dominant this season, ranking first overall in KenPom while coming one spot shy (11th in adjusted offensive efficiency) from being a Top-10 unit on both ends of the court. In a year of parity, where there have been few dominant teams, Houston has been a notable exception and that's enough for me to view them as a deserving favorite.

It's tough to choose Marcus Sasser as Most Outstanding Player right now, considering he missed the AAC Championship game due to a groin injury, but he was listed as a game-time decision, so I'm assuming he's good enough to play and was held out for precautionary reasons. At the end of the day, he should have some big scoring nights as the best player on the best team.

I'm choosing the Drake Bulldogs as my Cinderella because they check off a few key qualifiers: They are mature and hungry.

The Bulldogs are one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the nation, as the average age of their starting five is odler than a number of NBA teams. The difference is that they aren't tanking — they're hungry after getting a bid stolen from them (by COVID) in 2020 and then falling just short in the MVC title game in 2021 and 2022.

The Bulldogs look like a team on a mission, after a dominant 77-51 victory in this year's MVC Tournament final, and they're in fine form having won 12 of their last 13 games. Plus, I don't find their draw very difficult.

See JD's full March Madness bracket.

Jared Hochman, Senior Publishing Editor (@JLHoch)

Final Four:  Marquette (East),  UConn (West),  Texas (Midwest),  Alabama (South)

I've had it in my head, for quite some time, that "going with the best team in the Big 12 is the way to roll." 

And yes, Kansas is the No. 3-overall seed, and the highest Big 12 team in the conference... but are they really the best team from that conference? I'm arguing no — it's actually Texas, which dismantled the Jayhawks in the Big 12 final (and beat them twice in the span of a week).

Despite a wild season, which saw them, umm, overcome a lot of off-court distractions, the Longhorns enter the Big Dance sitting sixth in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin (18th in offense, 11th in defense), plays a physical game with a rotation that runs nine men deep, and is a senior-laden team, led by guards Marcus Carr and Sir'Jabari Rice, plus forward Timmy Allen, who should return to the court after missing the Big 12 Tournament with a calf strain.

It won't be easy getting through the likes of Xavier and potentially Houston, but the Horns check a lot of boxes required for a National Champion.

If Texas is going to cut down the nets come April 3, it will likely be because the aforementioned Carr will be powering them. The key cog in a guard-heavy Longhorns attack, the senior from Toronto, Ontario, Canada leads the team with 15.9 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 1.8 steals. A first-team All-Big 12 selection, he may not be the best player in the tournament... but he will be the most outstanding in leading his team to glory.

And my Cinderella slipper this year will be adorned in a flash of gold, as I'm looking at Kent State. The 13th seed in the Midwest, the Golden Flashes can get down and play defense — they force nearly nine steals per game (17th in the nation) and are 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

They faced Houston and Gonzaga already this year, losing both by a combined 12 points on the road, and in the first round they get an Indiana team that is just .500 over the last month (in a weak Big Ten) — I mean, the spread only opened at -4!

After IU? Well, KSU either gets Miami — a team that can score, but struggles on defense and could be without its top post player — or Drake, another mid-major that is possibly the next best option for an unheralded run.

See Jared's full March Madness bracket.

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