Furman vs San Diego State Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Paladins Stun Spread Again

The Furman Paladins will look to pull off another March Madness odds upset when they take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday.

No. 13 Furman (28-7) pulled off an improbable win over the Virginia Cavaliers after a late steal and 3-pointer put it ahead in the final seconds. No. 5 seed San Diego State (28-6) held off the Charleston Cougars 63-57 to book its own first-round victory. 

The Paladins solved Virginia’s slowdown system, and will now face another strong defensive team in the form of the Aztecs. We’ll break down this intriguing matchup in our March Madness picks and predictions for Furman vs. San Diego State on March 18.

Furman vs San Diego State best odds

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Furman vs San Diego State picks and predictions

Furman didn’t exactly stun the world by beating Virginia on Thursday. The Paladins were only about a 4.5-point underdog heading into the game, and the Cavaliers have a habit of keeping teams in games thanks to their plodding approach.

Still, the ending to the game made it an instant classic, with Furman point guard JP Pegues hitting a dramatic three-pointer after Virginia coughed up the ball to give the Paladins a 68-67 win in their first tournament appearance since 1980.

You can argue that Furman’s path to victory was something of a fluke. But regardless of how the last 10 seconds of the game played out, there’s no denying that the Paladins hung in with Virginia for 40 minutes and took advantage of the opportunity presented to them. Now, they get the chance to play a similar team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State doesn’t play as slowly as Virginia, because virtually nobody does. However, the Aztecs are still a defense-first team that looks to control the pace to some extent. San Diego State holds opponents to just 64.4 points per game on 29.8% shooting from 3-point range. KenPom.com rates the Aztecs ninth in the country in defensive efficiency, just behind teams like the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks. 

Like Virginia, San Diego State lacks dynamic offensive weapons, with senior guard Matt Bradley (13.1 ppg) the only player averaging double-digit points on the year. The Aztecs also have trouble blowing out opponents at times. Two of their three conference tournament games were decided by five points or less, while they only beat Charleston by six points after some free throws padded the margin in the final minute.

While Furman didn’t exactly dismantle the Virginia defense, it did enough to get the job done against the Cavaliers. The Paladins shot 10-for-28 from beyond the arc, and had four players in double figures. Furman should benefit from a better game out of senior guard Mike Bothwell (17.8 ppg) in the second round, after he fouled out and scored only 11 points in 20 minutes of play on Thursday.

San Diego State is the better team here, and the Aztecs are arguably a tougher test than Virginia. But the Paladins are more than capable of staying in this game and certainly have a shot at a second straight upset. 

My best bet: Furman +6 (-110 at PointsBet)

Furman vs San Diego State spread analysis

The spread on Saturday’s game opened with San Diego State as a 5.5-point favorite. Many books have stuck to that number, though you can also find Furman +6 at some sportsbooks as of noon on Friday.

Furman continues to be excellent against the spread this year, now boasting a 19-13 ATS record. San Diego State is 16-5-2 ATS on the season.

Both teams have been hot for bettors as of late, going 4-1 in their last five against the number. They’re both also winning a lot straight up. Furman has won 15 of its last 16 games, while the Aztecs have been victorious in 11 of their last 12.

Just as they did against Virginia, the Paladins should be able to find at least some offensive success against San Diego State. Furman averages an impressive 82.2 points per game, and shoots the ball at 48.6% from the floor. While it relied on the 3-pointer to beat Virginia, that’s not normally where the Paladins get most of their points.

Furman should also have Bothwell on the court for around 35 minutes, provided he doesn’t get into foul trouble again. This team has stayed in games against strong opponents every time they’ve had the opportunity this year, and I don’t see this game against San Diego State being any different. Let’s take Furman and the points.

Furman vs San Diego State Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 137.5 points. While that’s still the Over/Under at many sites, other sportsbooks have been moving the number up, with numbers as high as 139 available at the time of this writing.

When Furman played Virginia, I remarked that it was a dramatic clash of styles. That’s once again the case against San Diego State, as the Aztecs are also a capable defensive team. The Aztecs also profile similarly to Virginia on the offensive end, meaning they’re not likely to expose the Paladins’ shaky defensive unit in any real way.

The main difference between the two teams is that San Diego State doesn’t play nearly as slowly as the Cavaliers. To be clear, the Aztecs are still slower than average. But they average four extra possessions per game compared to the Cavaliers, a small but significant difference when it comes to how dramatically they impact the pace of play.

That has me looking at the Over for this game. However, I really want to lock in that bet at the 137.5 number. While Furman and Virginia surprised me by going over their very low total on Thursday, that barely happened in the final seconds. While I think the correct total on this game is likely in the low 140s, once the Over/Under hits 139 or so, I don’t think there’s enough of an edge to make this bet worthwhile.

Furman vs San Diego State betting trend to know

Furman is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with winning records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Furman vs. San Diego State.

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