Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Vols Cramp Owls' Style

The 9-seed FAU Owls are set t take on the 4-seed Tennessee Volunteers in a Sweet Sixteen matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region at Madison Square Garden this evening.

The Owls, who are making their second-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament, have easily made it further than they’ve ever been. With wins over Memphis and Fairleigh Dickinson, this is FAU’s first trip to the regional semifinal.

The Volunteers struggled to get by Louisiana in the opening game, but pounded Duke with physicality in the second round to secure a spot at MSG.

Can FAU, the big March Madness odds underdog, stay alive, or will Tennessee continue its march to the Elite Eight? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for FAU vs. Tennessee on Thursday, March 23.

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee best odds

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee picks and predictions

FAU has rolled up nine consecutive victories, while covering six games during the span. It’s creating quite a history with the Volunteer State, too. The last loss for the Owls came at Middle Tennessee on February 16, its first-ever Madness win was against Memphis, and now its first-ever Sweet Sixteen game is against Tennessee.

The Volunteers have to look back to just 2019 for their last trip to the Sweet Sixteen. They topped a pair of double-digit seeds before bowing out to Purdue in an overtime loss.

Tennessee is making its ninth-ever appearance in the Sweet Sixteen, going just 1-7 straight-up in its previous eight trips. It has never faced a Conference USA member at any point of the NCAA Tournament in its 50-game history.

The Vols will be looking to slow down the Owls, using their signature defense to do the job. Tennessee has allowed 55 or fewer points in three of its four postseason games, cashing the Under in each of those outings. The lone exception was its SEC Tournament loss to Missouri on March 10, a 79-71 setback.

FAU struggled with the press and tenacious D of a smallish FDU team last round, and Tennessee is likely to be too much for the Owls at MSG on Thursday. Tennessee is much larger in size than Fairleigh Dickinson, and FAU will have difficulty getting into the paint for points. It will likely need to go outside for more shots, but Tennessee No. 1 in defensive 3-point percentage during the season, too.

The spread is surprisingly low, mainly due to Tennessee’s stout defensive, FAU’s inexperience on this stage, and the fact the Vols D has been amazing in this tournament to date. I’d bet the Vols all the way up to -7.5.

My best bet: Tennessee -4.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee spread analysis

The Owls have been red-hot against the number all season, going 22-11-1 ATS overall. However, since January 28, a conference game against Western Kentucky, the Owls are actually just 7-8 ATS in the previous 15 games overall.

FAU has cashed four in a row as an underdog since that lone non-conference loss at Mississippi back on November 11, but facing the No. 4 scoring defense in the nation is going to be a tall order.

It is also FAU’s first-ever game at Madison Square Garden, so it will be interesting to see how head coach Dusty May acclimates his team, and keep them from getting too high or hyped.

Tennessee last visited MSG on December 7, 2021, a 57-52 setback against Texas Tech in a neutral-floor matchup which saw it fail to cover. Prior to that, it had visited twice in 2010, winning and covering a pair of games.

The Volunteers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine NCAA Tournament games, and, perhaps more importantly, Tennessee is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games against winning teams this season.

While that looks contradictory to a Vols play — and perhaps that’s why the public is starting to pour money in on FAU — the Owls are inexperienced, both among the coaching staff, and the players.

The Owls also struggled against Fairleigh Dickinson’s press, and FAU was inconsistent from the perimeter in that win. Against a Tennessee team with much larger and more physical players, FAU will have to work twice as hard for any points that they get against the tenacious Volunteers.

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The Owls have cashed the Under in four of the past five games overall, while going 5-1 in the past six neutral-floor contests.

FAU will be a good test for Tennessee’s D, as the Owls scored 79.3 PPG this season, while hitting threes at a 37.8% clip. Both of those marks are inside the Top 30. 

FAU’s Johnell Davis posted 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and five steals against Fairleigh Dickinson, as he became the first player in Men’s NCAA Tournament history to amass 25+ points, 10+ rebounds, 5+ assists, and 5+ steals in a single game, so the Vols will want to key on him, obviously.

Tennessee allowed just 57.5 PPG in the regular season, while leading the country in both defensive field-goal percentage (36.4%) and defensive 3-pointer percentage (25.5%). And the offense is just so-so, going for 71.9 PPG.

I am thinking this is going to be a low-scoring, defensive slog, with Tennessee grinding out a win, so that makes for a nice parlay opportunity.

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Volunteers are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games with a total of 131 or fewer points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee.

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee game info

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