Boise State vs Northwestern Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Shooting the Difference in Defensive Battle

This first-round matchup in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament will see the No. 10 Boise State Broncos face off with the No. 7 Northwestern Wildcats at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA. 

Boise State finished the season at 24-9 overall and 13-5 in the Mountain West. The Broncos struggled in their conference tournament, needing overtime to beat UNLV in the first round and then losing to Utah State. 

Northwestern finished the season at 21-11 overall and 2-8 in the Big Ten. The Wildcats lost in the first round of the conference tournament to Penn State but March Madness odds list them as a slight favorite here.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Boise State and Northwestern on March 16. For more, check out our March Madness picks.

Boise State vs Northwestern best odds

Boise State vs Northwestern picks and predictions

The Selection Committee did a nice job pairing these two programs together. Both teams have a very similar style with a slower pace and fantastic defense. According to KenPom rankings, Boise State ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and Northwestern ranks 13th. 

The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation, allowing only 62.5 points per game this season. Only six teams all season were able to reach the 70-point mark against them. They even had two overtime games with Penn State recently that finished with 133 and 132 total points. 

Northwestern can stop so many teams from scoring because it’s fantastic at protecting the paint. The Wildcats only allow 28.4 points per game from inside the 3-point line, which ranks 10th nationally. Opponents only shoot 46.6% from 2-pointers (39th) on the Wildcats — 33.3% from 2-point jumpers and 56.3% at the rim. 

The reason that opponent rim field goal percentage is so poor is because the Wildcats are excellent at blocking shots. They rank 56th nationally with 4.2 rejections per game, despite no one player averaging more than 1.3 blocks per contest. However, Boise State is also a fantastic defensive team. 

The Broncos allow only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 32nd in the country. They are excellent at forcing misses and not allowing second-chance opportunities. Opponents only shoot 41.5% from the field (42nd) and record 7.0 offensive boards per game (35th). 

Neither team turns the ball over much either, as Northwestern ranks 10th and Boise State ranks 68th in turnovers per contest.

This is going to be a very clean game with very few fast breaks and second-chance opportunities. It will all come down to who has the better shooting performance. Regardless, this game sets up perfectly for a low-scoring game and a clear Under bet. 

My best bet: Under 128.5 (-110 at Betway)

Boise State vs Northwestern spread analysis

This matchup is extremely evenly matched on the defensive end, but there is one mismatch that can be taken advantage of, and that is in 3-point shooting. Both defenses are so strong and do not allow points at the rim, so it will be important to be able to make shots from downtown and this favors the Broncos.

Boise State shoots 36.0% from three and that ranks 81st nationally. Meanwhile, Northwestern shoots a dreadful 32.1% from deep, which ranks 279th. On the other end, Boise State holds its opponents to only 31.0% from downtown (32nd). Northwestern opponents shoot 33.9% from 3-point land (168th). 

The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in their last five neutral site games and 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Northwestern lost four of its last five games straight up to end the season and was one and done in the Big Ten Tournament. 

Northwestern has had a tougher NET strength of schedule at 37th compared to Boise State’s 60th, but the Broncos had a much better non-conference SOS at 135th to 295th. Neither team will turn the ball over or allow any easy buckets, but the Broncos will be able to score the harder buckets better and hit more threes. Give me the Broncos to win as the underdog and advance. 

Boise State vs Northwestern Over/Under analysis

Not only are both defenses great and both offenses protective of their possessions, but they also play slow tempos. Northwestern ranks 305th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo and Boise State ranks 219th. The Wildcats average 67.4 possessions per game (306th) and the Broncos average 69.0 (232nd). 

The Under is 8-2 in the Broncos’ last 10 neutral site games. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Wildcats’ last four games following an ATS loss and 8-2-1 in their last 11 games overall. It is also 5-2 in the Wildcats' last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Both teams are likely to remain in the low 60s or high 50s in the scoring range. Even if this game goes to overtime, there is still a great chance this game stays Under the total. 

Boise State vs Northwestern betting trend to know

The Under is 3-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last five games following a straight-up loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for Boise State vs. Northwestern.

Boise State vs Northwestern game info

Boise State vs Northwestern key injuries

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