The Big Dance has gotten just a little bit smaller, as March Madness odds now feature just 16 teams vying for the national championship heading into weekend No. 2.
While we've got March Madness picks for each of the games happening over the next four days, we're going to kick things off with our favorite bundle of bets for Thursday and Friday's action.
Here is our best March Madness parlay, derived from the Sweet 16 slate of games.
March Madness parlay for the Sweet 16
Total parlay odds: +724
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March Madness parlay picks
J.D. Notae Over 18.5 points
After being a secondary player (behind Moses Moody and Jalen Tate) for Arkansas last season, J.D. Notae has firmly established himself as the engine behind the Razorbacks this year.
The senior guard averaged a career-high 18.4 points per game this year, including 18.9 ppg in SEC play. He scored 17 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament again Vermont — a team that plays in-your-face pressure defense and harasses perimeter players — while going just 1-for-7 from beyond the arc, then scored 18 in a low-scoring second-round battle against New Mexico State.
Up next is Gonzaga, aka the tournament favorites, but the story with the Zags is all offense, all the time. The Bulldogs lead the nation in offense, so if Arkansas wants to win (or even hang around as a 9.5-point underdog), it's going to need to score — with Notae leading the charge.
Arkansas has given up 75 ppg through two games in the Big Dance (with five different guards scoring in double figures), which is right in line with Arkansas' 77 ppg average on the season. Notae averages about 24% of the Hogs' points this season, so assuming they go based on averages, Notae is a solid bet to hit 19 on Thursday.
Best odds: -105 at DraftKings
Arizona -1.5
Yes, the Wildcats needed a late three by superstar Bennedict Mathurin to force overtime, where they would eventually go on to survive in the Second Round against No. 8 TCU, but all that matters is that the No. 1 seed in the South Region made it to the second weekend.
And they're only getting stronger.
Point guard Kerr Kriisa suffered an ankle injury in the Pac-12 Tournament, missing the tourney title game and Arizona's first-round matchup against Wright State. He returned against TCU, playing 27 minutes off the bench, but shot just 1-for-10 and was still clearly not 100%.
The sophomore averaged nearly 10 points and five assists per season (on 30 minutes per game), and with another four days to rest he should be able to get back closer to the guy that formed a dynamic Arizona backcourt all season alongside Mathurin.
The biggest key in having Kriisa healthier will be his defensive presence against No. 5 Houston, which is led by backcourt stars Kyler Edwards and Jamal Shead, who have combined for 34 ppg through two tournament games. The Cougars advanced by blasting No. 12 UAB and cruising past a wildly overrated Illinois squad but neither team was particularly good defensively — and certainly not at the level of Arizona, which is 19th in the nation in Kenpom's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that not only has Kriisa and Mathurin on the perimeter but also 7-foot-1 Christian Koloko, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.
The other two 1-seeds remaining in the tournament are much larger favorites (Kansas -7.5 versus Providence, Gonzaga -9.5 vs Arkansas), so while Houston may indeed be the toughest opponent of the three, a 1.5-point spread seems a little low for the tournament's No. 2-overall seed — which is healthier than last weekend.
Best odds: -110 at bet365
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Safe March Madness betting sites
Armando Bacot O16.5 points
Armando Bacot is a problem.
UNC's hulking center (checking in at 6-foot-10 and 240lbs) led the Tar Heels this season with 16.4 points and 12.5 rebounds per game — the latter of which was also third in the entire nation.
Bacot has continued his strong play in the NCAA Tournament, posting 17 and 10 (in just 28 minutes) in a destruction of Marquette, while dropping 15 and 16 in an upset win of Baylor — where he shot just 7-for-15 at the foul line, which is well below his season average of 68.5%.
Up next for the No. 8-seed Tar Heels is a Sweet 16 tango with UCLA, a Final Four participant last year and a stout defensive squad... but one that does not pose a great matchup to slow down Bacot.
The Bruins lack frontcourt depth — Cody Riley (21.4 minutes per game) and Myles Johnson (18.4 mpg) are the only guys above 6-foot-9 that play meaningful minutes — while the heart and soul of the team, Jaime Jaquez Jr., is questionable after leaving the team's Round 2 win over Saint Mary's with what seems like a sprained ankle.
With Bacot likely to spend the majority of the game with a size advantage, look for him to have his way in the paint (including plenty of second chance points against a UCLA team whose leading rebounder is Jaquez), and have a performance from the charity stripe more in line with his season averages than that Baylor meltdown.
Best odds: -106 at FanDuel
2022 March Madness odds
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