March Madness is down to its final two teams, and it’s no shocker to see the UConn Huskies taking on the Purdue Boilermakers in tonight’s National Championship Game.
Both programs opened among the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament title back in the fall and earned No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance after stellar seasons. However, in the eyes of the March Madness odds, Connecticut is the stronger of the two.
Oddsmakers opened UConn as the betting favorite following Saturday’s Final Four games, and action has been pouring in at sportsbooks across the continent ahead of tonight’s 9:20 p.m. ET tipoff in Glendale, Arizona.
I run down line movements and betting patterns for UConn vs. Purdue, giving you the inside scoop on the spread, Over/Under, and moneyline odds for your March Madness picks on Monday, April 8.
National Championship Game odds movement news
No. 1 No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 UConn Huskies
Spread
Even before the semifinal games were complete, some bookmakers offered a look-ahead line for this possible title game pairing, setting UConn as a 5.5-point favorite over Purdue.
Once the Huskies rolled over Alabama and the Boilermakers turned Cinderella NC State into a pumpkin, oddsmakers re-opened action with Connecticut as big as a 6.5-point fave for Monday’s title game.
That spread climbed to as high as -7.5 at some shops with buyback on Purdue settling the spread to -6.5 over the weekend. As of Monday morning, however, we’re seeing that line tick back up with UConn available between -6.5 (-115), -7 (-110), and -7.5 (-105).
According to BetMGM sportsbooks, which went from -5.5 to as high as -7.5 (and now sits -7 as of Monday morning), 64% of ticket count and 73% of money wager is laying the points with Connecticut. Covers Consensus data concurs, with 60% of picks backing the defending national champs.
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Over/Under total
Look-ahead lines were available before the Final Four games finished and had the total for this potential matchup at 146.5 points. After UConn vs. Purdue was set, the official opening O/U hit the board at that exact spot but took early Under money.
The number has slipped to as low as 145 points as of Monday morning.
Covers Consensus is showing a slight lean in picks toward the Over, while operators like BetMGM are reporting a higher rate of ticket count on the Over (62%) but the overall handle (total money wagered) balanced with 51% of money baking on a higher-scoring finish. That means bigger bets are landing on the Under and books are adjusting down off that liability.
The Boilermakers and Huskies have been moneymakers for anyone playing the Under during the NCAA Tournament, as only one of their combined 10 tournament games played Over the closing total (Purdue-Utah State went Over 150.5 in the Round of 32).
Moneyline
The moneyline market for the National Championship Game is a unique one, as a season’s worth of NCAA Tournament futures betting rolls into this result.
Being the defending national champs, UConn opened among the frontrunners to win the championship when the futures book opened before the start of the season, sitting around +1,200. Purdue, with Zach Edey back in the middle, was also considered a legit contender and opened around +1,800.
The Huskies were around +400 at the beginning of the Big Dance while the Boilermakers sat at +700 after falling in the Big Ten tournament. Those odds slimmed with every round of the March Madness bracket.
As of Monday morning, the moneyline prices for the National Championship Game see UConn around a -300 favorite to win outright (75% implied probability) with Purdue set as a +230 underdog (30% implied probability).
It’s not surprising to see more outright action on the underdog in a title game, given the quality of the team, and that’s just what BetMGM is reporting for tonight’s title game, drawing 69% of bet count on Purdue’s moneyline while 56% of the money is leaning to the dog.
Connecticut has been a popular bet to win a second straight title all season, drawing the second-highest ticket count and the largest handle for the NCAA Tournament title futures. BetMGM is reporting that 21.5% of all money on those futures is riding on UConn, while Purdue has drawn 11.3% of the handle.
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