James Madison vs Duke Predictions, Picks, and Odds: March Madness Second-Rounder Delivers Easy Points

You know those games where Arizona plays Kentucky and some genius quips: “The Wildcats will win”. You'll hear some of that when the No. 12 James Madison Dukes play the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils on Sunday afternoon, trying to earn the right to face Houston or Texas A&M in the Sweet Sixteen.

Of course, that eye-roll-inducing one-liner is not as simple in this instance, the Dukes against Duke. Make that friend commit to a singular or a plural pronunciation.

Here, we're committing to an entertaining game. Both these offenses have improved in the last month and their shooting should propel this second-round matchup well past its total in the March Madness odds.

We expect both the Dukes and Duke to score plenty in our March Madness picks as we preview James Madison vs. Duke on Sunday, March 24, with tip set for 5:15 ET.

James Madison vs Duke best odds

James Madison vs Duke picks and predictions

There are two ways to argue for taking this Over, a number that opened at 148.5 in Saturday’s earliest hours before falling to 147.5 at some books on Sunday.

One, just look at these two offenses. The Duke Blue Devils led the ACC by making 38.5% of its 3-pointers in conference play, taking them more often than most teams but not solely depending on them. And the James Madison Dukes shot 36.3% from beyond the arc this season, also taking those long-range risks more often than most teams do.

The Dukes — plural, there — are more praised for their defense, ranking No. 55 in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy’s industry-standard rankings. And that defense makes its bones, on paper, by limiting looks from three, but that is a misleading stat. No, it's not wrong. Opponents took only 35.2% of their field goals from deep against James Madison, and that's notably lower than the national average of 37.3%.

However, few teams in the Sun Belt liked to shoot threes. Not to paint with too broad a brush, but that is not shocking. Players who excel from three typically end up at better programs than any in the Sun Belt. Only four of the other 13 teams in the conference shot threes more often than the national average in Sun Belt competition. Three of those 13 shot them on less than 30% of their field goal attempts, wildly conservative in the modern era of college basketball.

It's not so much that James Madison does not give up looks from deep as it is that the bulk of the Dukes’ schedule since Christmas preferred to not shoot 3-pointers.

Duke’s — that’s singular possessive — delight to shoot from range may be diminished somewhat this afternoon, but not by as much as the numbers have made some inclined to believe.

Now, the other argument for this Over is the one that convinces us to not simply target a Duke team total Over: Both offenses have improved in the last month or so. Since Feb. 14, the Blue Devils have scored 6.8 points per 100 possessions more than they had up until then, per barttorvik.com.

James Madison has nearly matched that, its offensive efficiency up 6.1 points per 100 possessions in that same time frame. Furthermore, the Dukes are giving up 1.9 points more per 100 possessions.

Both these teams shoot well from deep. Duke’s chances from three will not be as diminished as James Madison’s defensive numbers suggest. And both these offenses are finding a groove of late.

My best bet: Over 147 (-112 at DraftKings)

James Madison vs Duke same-game parlay

Over 147

Duke -6.5

Jared McCain Over 1.5 made threes

+340 at DraftKings

This spread falling to -6.5 from -7.5 is simply giving too much credit to James Madison’s defense. It was built on Sun Belt competition and players not shooting from deep very often in the first place. It was not built on offenses using a 2024 approach.

Duke does. And if it shoots well — only 6-for-18 in the first-round win against Vermont — then this spread is too tight. If the Blue Devils find any rhythm from long range, this game could turn into a blowout.

And no one in the Duke rotation will make better use of expected looks than freshman Jared McCain. He shot 39.7% from deep this season, hitting 2.2 per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

James Madison vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened at -6.5 or -7 in Saturday’s earliest hours, sportsbooks giving a strong amount of deference to James Madison’s upset of the Badgers. This then climbed to -7.5 on Sunday morning despite books reporting an abundance of support for the Dukes both in ticket count and handle amount.

That betting emphasis eventually returned this spread to -6.5 around lunch on Sunday, despite advanced metrics thinking Duke should win this game by eight.

The total ticking down makes some sense when remembering Duke has cashed 20 Unders in 33 games this season, including in five of their last six, but James Madison likes to play at tempo and may speed up this game.

James Madison vs Duke betting trend to know

While James Madison covered the spread in 20 of 34 games this season, much of that work was done out of the gates. Oddsmakers caught up to the Dukes after they started the year 10-3 ATS, going just 10-11 ATS since Jan. 5. Find more college basketball betting trends for James Madison vs. Duke.

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James Madison vs Duke game info

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