Colorado State vs Texas Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Abmas Delivers Again in March Madness

The No. 10 seed Colorado State Rams take on the No. 7 seed Texas Longhorns in the first round of the NCAA Tournament tonight.

The Rams claimed a spot in the official March Madness bracket by dominating Virginia in the First Four. Now they face the Longhorns, who are looking to make it even further than last year when they advanced to the Elite Eight. 

March Madness odds have the Longhorns as 2.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 144.5 for this Midwest Region clash. Here are my best free March Madness picks and predictions for Colorado State vs. Texas.

Colorado State vs Texas best odds

Colorado State vs Texas picks and predictions

With KenPom rating these teams so closely, it's tough to pick a side here. The Texas Longhorns are 27th in the KenPom ratings while the Colorado State Rams are just three spots behind at No. 30.

The Longhorns are coming off a 78-74 loss to Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 tournament and they were just eighth in the conference standings with a 9-9 record during the regular season.  

The Rams looked terrific in non-conference play going 10-1 straight-up and 9-2 ATS against Division 1 foes. However, they went just 10-8 in conference play and ended up falling in the Mountain West semifinals to New Mexico.

To be fair, the Mountain West was loaded this year and they came away with wins against San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise State, all of whom made the NCAA Tournament. That said, the Longhorns played in the even tougher Big 12 so it's hard to give CSU a pass for a middling record in a highly-competitive conference while holding that against Texas.

It is worth mentioning that almost all of Colorado State's big wins in conference play came at home, where they have a massive edge due to the high elevation at Fort Collins. That's an advantage that they won't enjoy at a neutral site like the Spectrum Center.

Another factor to consider is that the Longhorns have far more experience in the NCAA Tournament. Not only did they make it to the Elite Eight where they lost a close contest last year, but all five starters have significant March Madness experience. In fact, leading scorer Max Abmas became a March Madness hero when he played for Oral Roberts, and shooting guard Tyrese Hunter also has a history of hitting clutch shots in March.

The Rams only have one starter with NCAA Tournament experience; star point guard Isaiah Stevens. Stevens struggled in his lone March Madness appearance, going just 3-for-11 from the field in a lopsided first round loss to Michigan in 2022. He's also currently mired in a slump. Although Stevens torched a terrible Air Force squad two weeks ago, he has averaged just 11.2 ppg on 39.6% shooting in his other five games this month.

I'll back a more experienced Texas side that knows how to get the job done at this time of year. 

My best bet: Texas -2 (-115 at DraftKings) 64% boost available

Colorado State vs Texas same-game parlay

Texas -2

Over 144

Max Abmas Over 17.5 points

64% boost available

+365 +599 at DraftKings

It's tough to gauge this CSU squad since they looked like a completely different team once conference play began. During Mountain West play they were 82nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency while playing at an extremely slow tempo.

However, during their non-conference schedule they were 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 76th on defense while playing at a slightly faster pace. I think that change had more to do with the style of teams in the Mountain West. Expect an uptick in pace and scoring against an athletic Longhorns team that can run the floor and ranks 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency on the season. 

I mentioned Abmas earlier in this article but the first time you probably heard his name was in the 2021 tournament when he dropped 29 points against Ohio State, 26 against Florida, and 25 versus Arkansas. His March Madness heroics made Oral Roberts one of the Cinderella teams of that tourney and he now spearheads the Longhorns attack.

The point guard leads Texas with 17.1 ppg on 43/37/92 shooting splits and he's coming off a 26-point game against Kansas State. The Rams don't do a good job of defending midrange or long-distance shots, which are areas where Abmas likes to pull up from. With his tendency to step up in the biggest games, expect a strong performance from Abmas tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado State vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board immediately after Colorado State's First Four victory with Texas at -3.5. Bettors immediately backed the Rams at that number slimming the spread to -2.5. The O/U opened at 145 but money has come in on the Under, shifting the total to 144.

While CSU was an ATS darling at the start of the season, the Rams have gone just 8-13 ATS in their last 21 games. The Under has also cashed in 11 of their last 14 games due to their shooting percentages falling off a cliff. 

It's been an up-and-down season for the Longhorns, who entered with high expectations. Despite three returning starters and the addition of Abmas, the Longhorns have gone just 12-18-1 ATS. They went just .500 in Big 12 play and showed that they were a step below the top teams in the conference.

Colorado State vs Texas betting trend to know

The Over has cashed in six straight games for the Longhorns. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado State vs. Texas.

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