March Madness is not just about filling out a bracket. It is about beating the number before the rest of the market catches up. As bubble teams fight for bids and contenders jockey for seeding, sharp bettors know the best value often shows up before Selection Sunday.
Our 2026 March Madness bracket predictions spotlight the teams to watch, the best bets to make the men’s tournament, and expert bracketology insight to help you stay one step ahead.
March Madness predictions to make the tournament field of 68
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Santa Clara Broncos: Yes |
-150 |
 Indiana Hoosiers: No |
-190 |
 TCU Horned Frogs: Yes |
-270 |
 Ohio State Buckeyes: Yes |
-240 |
 VCU Rams: No |
-390 |
Santa Clara Broncos: Yes (-150)
Running through the prominent NCAA projections, Santa Clara seems destined for a No. 11 seed out of the WCC. Those forecasts have the Broncos getting a standard at-large bid or sitting among the first four in, which means a play-in game. Either way, they’re among the Field of 68.
We could see three teams from the WCC in the tournament for just the second time in 14 seasons, but Santa Clara still has work to do in the conference tournament to make that a reality.
Indiana Hoosiers: No (-190)
The Hoosiers couldn’t stop the bleeding with their fourth straight loss this weekend. Indiana was on the bubble before losing to Michigan State Sunday, but that defeat seems like the death knell for IU.
The Hoosiers need wins + style points in the final two games – vs. Minnesota and at Ohio State – and likely an upset in the Big Ten tournament to get back in the Big Dance.
TCU Horned Frogs: Yes (-270)
Texas Christian injected life into its tournament hopes with a road win at Kansas State and gets a home date in the season finale versus Cincinnati – a game that will burst someone’s NCAA bubble.
The Horned Toads are 5-1 SU in their last six heading into a tough matchup with Texas Tech, but TCU’s resume is solid, especially with non-conference wins over Florida and Wisconsin. Most bracketologist have the Frogs destined for a No. 11 seed.
Ohio State Buckeyes: Yes (-240)
The Buckeyes bolstered their resume with a monster win over Purdue at home Sunday. Ohio State was on the outside looking in for a couple projections but after beating up the Boilermakers, OSU is as high as a No. 10 seed.
The Buckeyes are playing good ball down the stretch, with three wins in the past five games and those defeats coming in close contests with Virginia and MSU. They have winnable games at Penn State and vs. Indiana to wrap the regular season.
VCU Rams: No (-390)
Virginia Commonwealth could win its final two games by 20 points each and still not make the Selection Committee flinch. The Rams are a good team in a bad conference and the Atlantic 10 may be limited to a single representative.
To sneak into the Field of 68, VCU needs Saint Louis to lose in the A-10 tournament and likely win the conference crown. That said, there are some projections that have the Rams earning a “first four” ticket. Their record looks good on the surface but comes up short versus Quadrant 1 competition.
4 March Madness bracket tips from an expert bracketologist
Few people understand brackets better than Tim Chartier, an award-winning Professor of Mathematics and Computer Sciences at Davidson College who teaches students how to create mathematical formulas to predict winners.
Chartier recently spoke to Covers to share four key things to consider before submitting your bracket.
1. Be weary of your intuition
"Brackets aren’t just about probabilities — they’re about people," Chartier explains. "We all carry bias into March, whether it’s loyalty, rivalry, or gut instinct. The danger isn’t ignoring analytics; it’s using them to justify what we already wanted to pick. The art of data science is knowing when to trust the data — and when to admit your intuition may be leading you astray."
2. Cinderellas can be tough to spot in advance
"First-round upsets tend to come in two main styles," Chartier insists. "The first is momentum. These are teams whose overall record may not jump off the page, but who closed the season strong, beating quality opponents and carrying real 'Madness mojo' into the tournament.
"The second is variability. Some teams are volatile — they run hot or cold. That inconsistency may hurt their season-long record, but if they get hot at the right time, they can string together wins in a hurry.
"The most difficult teams to spot are those that haven’t shown sustained success during the season but suddenly adapt to the win-or-go-home reality of March. Those are the true bracket-busters — and they rarely look obvious in advance."
3. Identify teams that others may overlook
"Winning an office pool isn’t just about being right — it’s about being right when others are wrong," Chartier says. "That requires some calculated risk. You want to identify teams that others may overlook, but without taking wild swings on long shots that are unlikely to pay off.
"For example, a 16-over-1 upset can happen — history shows it’s possible — but those games are extremely difficult to predict in advance. Picking all the No. 1 seeds in the first round is analytically sound. The challenge is that almost everyone else will do the same.
"So the real strategic question becomes: where do you differentiate? The edge often comes from finding modest underdogs with a legitimate path forward — not from chasing the most shocking upset on the board."
4. Matchups matter more than box scores
"Winning isn’t just about how strong a team is in general — it’s about how strong they are against that specific opponent," as Chartier puts it. "Matchups are more than box scores. A team can have outstanding statistics, but struggle against a particular defensive scheme or a certain style of offense.
"The key question becomes: how does this team perform against similar styles of play and similar types of players?
"In the first round, you can sometimes dig into that. But even then, there are 32 games. Coaches spend hours studying film and analytics to uncover matchup nuances. Fans have from Sunday evening to Thursday afternoon to make their picks.
"And once you move beyond the first round, the combinations explode. A team might match up well against one potential opponent but poorly against another.
"Still, if you’re unsure about a game, examining how a team has performed against comparable opponents during the season can sometimes provide that small analytical edge."
