Navigating March Madness upsets just got easier with bet365’s Early Win Payout promo for the NCAA Tournament.
No suffering through blown leads and sweating final seconds; if your First Round (Thursday and Friday) moneyline March Madness picks go up by 10 points — at any point in the game — it’s an instant winner.
If you’re looking to take advantage of this promotion and bet some plus-money plays, here are a few underdog moneyline bets that could jump out to a big lead... and quickly cash in.
March Madness moneyline upsets to target with bet365's Early Win Payout
North Dakota State
Akron
VCU
TexasCash your ML upset picks quickly with bet365's Early Win Payout!
Take advantage of the Early Win Payout at bet365, where for the first round of the tournament... you'll get paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 10+ points!
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North Dakota State Bison (vs Michigan State) +825
North Dakota State is a big underdog vs. Michigan State, but this team can quickly fill it up from outside and tends to start fast: The Bison are 53rd in first-half points in the country and could catch the Spartans sleeping, giving them added value on this early payout promo.
Texas Longhorns (vs BYU) +112
Texas already has a tournament win in tow after advancing from the First Four. The Longhorns are ready to roll, while BYU has been sitting since losing in the Big 12 tournament on March 12. The Cougars have also been in a tailspin since losing Richie Saunders, so it could fall behind to Texas before getting right later in the game.
Akron Zips (vs Texas Tech) +250
The Zips live up to their name, playing with pace and piling up the 3-pointers. That offense can quickly bust a game open, as Akron scored the seventh most first-half points in the country, so this early payout vs. Texas Tech could come before halftime.
VCU Rams (vs North Carolina) +120
The Rams have been going all out for the past month, fighting to get a ticket to the Big Dance. That mentality is much different than North Carolina’s motivations, as the Tar Heels backed into the tournament, lost their star player, and could be more focused on the transfer portal than VCU.
March Madness upset statistics
On average, there are 4.6 upsets (defined as an 11-seed or lower winning) per year in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, per NCAA.com, with the most upsets in one year happening in 2016 (8).
However, with bet365's Early Win Payout, here are the number of upsets that would have been paid out over the last five first rounds:
| Year | Actual upsets | EWP "upsets" |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | 3 |
| 2024 | 6 | 7 |
| 2023 | 4 | 6 |
| 2022 | 6 | 7 |
| 2021 | 7 | 9 |
Biggest upsets by seed
Here is also the percentage of actual First Round upsets since 1985.
| Upset | No. (%) | Most recent |
|---|---|---|
| 16 over 1 | 2x (1.25%) |  FDU (2023) |
| 15 over 2 | 11x (6.88%) |  Princeton (2023) |
| 14 over 3 | 23x (14.38%) |  Oakland (2024) |
| 13 over 4 | 33x (20.63%) |  Yale (2024) |
| 12 over 5 | 57x (35.63%) |  CSU (2025) McNeese (2025) |
| 11 over 6 | 62x (38.75%) |  Drake (2025) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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