Two bitter rivals face off on Saturday when the Kentucky Wildcats head to Knoxville for an SEC clash with the Tennessee Volunteers.
Both teams sit at 2-2 in SEC play, and both feature strong defensive units. A win would be big for the resume of both teams, in addition to providing bragging rights.
My Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions and free college basketball picks explain why those defenses, combined with questionable offenses, should keep the score low on Saturday, January 17.
Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction
Kentucky vs Tennessee best bet: Under 146.5 (-110)
The Kentucky Wildcats have defended well this season. But the emphasis in building a strong defensive team in the offseason has led to struggles at the offensive end.
And with Jaland Lowe having season-ending surgery, this is a Kentucky offense that has no true point guard presence. That’s shown up in SEC play, where the Wildcats rank in the 100s in offensive efficiency.
There has also been a marked drop in the pace of play. Kentucky now ranks 156th in adjusted tempo, something that will suit the Tennessee Volunteers just fine.
That’s because they play even slower. The Vols sit at just 67 possessions per game, partly because they tend to extend them. Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate, getting second opportunities at a clip of nearly 44%.
The Vols also rank among the worst teams in the nation at coughing up the ball, which has led to lower scores. But they make up for it at the other end with a Top 15 defense in adjusted efficiency.
Tennessee’s biggest weakness on defense is defending the arc, but this is not a Kentucky team built to take advantage of that. The Wildcats make just 34.3% of their outside shots and have only a couple of real threats from long range.
On the flip side, the Vols don’t take or make many themselves. In fact, through four SEC games, Tennessee has yet to make more than six treys and have made just 25.4% of attempts.
Throw in the tendency for the Wildcats to have at least one long stretch per game where they go long periods without scoring, and you have the perfect recipe for a low-scoring affair. Take the Under here down to 144.5 points.
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Kentucky vs Tennessee same-game parlay
The Wildcats are a team the Vols match up well against. They have the strength to compete on the glass, the defense to cause problems for an inconsistent Kentucky offense, and play at a tempo that won’t be pushed by the Cats.
Kentucky has trailed by double digits in more than half its games against quality opponents this season. It’ll happen again here as the Wildcats have a long scoring drought, and the Vols won’t let go of the rope like LSU did in midweek.
Nate Ament looked terrific in the second half of Tennessee’s win over Texas A&M. He registered a season-high 23 points in the win, after dropping 17 against Florida. He’s a matchup nightmare for the Wildcats, and I expect he’ll have another strong performance.
Kentucky vs Tennessee SGP
- Under 146.5
- Tennessee -6.5
- Nate Ament Over 14.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Nate the great
Otega Oweh knows he must score at a high rate for this Kentucky team to win, and he’s done so consistently, scoring 20+ points in all four SEC games and in five of his last six. With how often Tennessee leaves shooters open from the outside, I’ll back him to make multiple 3-pt baskets for the fourth straight game.
Kentucky vs Tennessee SGP
- Under 146.5
- Tennessee -6.5
- Nate Ament Over 14.5 points
- Otega Oweh Over 1.5 threes
Kentucky vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Kentucky +6.5 | Tennessee -6.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +230 | Tennessee -280
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Kentucky vs Tennessee
| Location | Food City Center, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, January 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Tennessee key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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