The Big Ten has a whopping four teams in the latest AP Top 25 poll and two of them will collide on Thursday night as the Iowa Hawkeyes head to the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines.
College basketball betting lines have No. 3-ranked Michigan installed as a 5-point favorite for this matchup.
Here are our best free Iowa vs Michigan picks and predictions for Thursday, February 25, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines betting preview
Injuries
Iowa: None.
Michigan: Jace Howard G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Wolverines last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Michigan.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMichigan hit the PointsBet USA odds board as 3.5-point chalk Wednesday afternoon and steadily crept up to -5.5, where the line sits at 5 p.m. ET. Point-spread bettors are on Michigan to the tune of 80 percent of tickets and 86 percent of money. "Iowa-Michigan is of note, as that's one of our biggest decisions of the night. Michigan covering would hurt," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said. The total opened at 156.5 and initially went up to 157.5, then receded to 154 before inching to 154.5, with 74 percent of bets/63 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Iowa enters this contest on a four-game winning streak, which includes a pair of runaway victories on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan State. That improved the Hawkeyes' season record to 17-6 and helped them snap out of a five-game slump which saw them go 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.
Michigan has been absolutely cooking, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous five games. Despite having to sit out for more than three weeks due to COVID-19 testing, Juwan Howard's squad didn't miss a beat coming back on Valentine's Day to defeat Wisconsin in Madison.
The Wolverines are 16-1 SU on the season and have gone a commanding 9-2 ATS since Christmas Day. They have been terrific on both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, while ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That said, it won't be easy to cover a 5-point spread against a very dangerous Iowa squad led by Wooden Award front-runner Luka Garza and his 24.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. In addition to Garza, the Hawkeyes have a deep and experienced roster and are the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Perhaps most importantly for this matchup, their scoring prowess travels with them, as the Hawkeyes average 83.3 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting on the road. And while they might not be known for their defensive play, they are limiting foes to a field goal percentage of 40.9.
Grab your popcorn ready for what should be a fantastic conference battle and back the road underdogs with the points.
PREDICTION: Iowa +5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Iowa had plenty of high-scoring shootouts earlier in the season but has now cashed the Under in five straight games. The Hawkeyes have played solid defense over that five-game span, holding foes to 64.2 ppg.
They've also played at a much slower pace, averaging 68.8 possessions per game in seven February contests after averaging 74.7 possessions per game through their first 16 games of the campaign.
The Wolverines play at a slower pace themselves, ranking 218th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, and that, combined with their fantastic defense, has made them a solid Under bet.
Michigan is limiting foes to 66.2 ppg on just 38.5 percent shooting, while going 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 155.5 (-110)
Iowa vs Michigan betting card
- Iowa +5 (-110)
- Under 155.5 (-110)
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