The Iowa Hawkeyes head to Ames to take on the No. 4-ranked Iowa State Cyclones in NCAA basketball action tonight.
Early money has come in on the visitors, with the Hawkeyes shifting from +12.5 to +10.5, but my Iowa vs. Iowa State predictions are going against the line movement.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for the latest edition of the Cy-Hawk rivalry on December 11.
Iowa vs Iowa State prediction
Iowa vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State -10.5 (-110)
Both of these schools are off to a great start this season, with the Iowa State Cyclones boasting a perfect 9-0 record and the Iowa Hawkeyes at 8-1.
The Cyclones are coming off an incredible performance where they beat former top-ranked Purdue 81-58 in its own backyard. They shot 58% from 2-point range and 48% from deep in that contest while holding the Boilermakers to just 4-for-18 from the arc.
I understand why early money is on Iowa. The Cyclones' stock is at a sell-high point after clobbering Purdue, and rivalry games are often good spots to bet the underdog. That said, I can't see an emotional letdown for ISU given the nature of this rivalry, and the Hawkeyes lost by 20+ points in their last two trips to Ames.
The Cyclones boast another Quad 1 win against No. 22 Saint John’s, as well as blowout victories over Creighton, Syracuse, and Mississippi State. Iowa’s resume is less impressive, with no Quad 2 games and an ugly 71-52 loss to Michigan State in its lone Quad 1 contest.
This is a team with a completely rebuilt roster under a new head coach, with Bennett Stirtz (18.7 points and 4.9 assists per game) being the only player capable of creating his own shot. Iowa doesn't have anyone else averaging more than 9.0 points per game, and that won't cut it against ISU, which is second in the country in adjusted defense according to KenPom.
On the other side of the floor, the Cyclones rank sixth in the country in adjusted offense. They take care of the ball, attack the offensive glass, and shoot extremely well from 3-point range (43.8%) and inside the arc (61.2%).
ISU also has three returning starters who all average more than 16.0 ppg, while freshman Killyan Toure is putting up 16.3 ppg in the last four games. The Hawkeyes won't be able to keep up with that firepower.
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Iowa vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Say goodbye to the Hawkeyes you used to know. With Fran McCaffery at the helm from 2011 to 2025, Iowa was known for an up-tempo and efficient offense that struggled to defend. Since Ben McCollum took over the program, this team has morphed into one that plays hard-nosed defense and slows the pace to a crawl.
The Hawkeyes are 356th in the country in adjusted tempo while ranking 34th in adjusted defense. Combine that with Iowa State's elite defense, and I'm leaning towards the Under in what should be a rock fight.
The multiplier for taking the Under on the game total and the Over 9.5 points for Toure is tough to turn down. The four-star freshman was overshadowed by ISU's other players at the start of the season, but he has seen his shooting volume ramp up over the last two weeks. Toure had a breakout 20-point game versus Creighton and has dropped at least 13 points in three straight contests since.
Iowa vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State -10.5
- Under 141.5
- Killyan Toure Over 9.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Toure Time
ISU center Joshua Jefferson is averaging 5.4 assists per game, but that production looks unsustainable when you consider he had 3.1 apg last season.
His numbers are inflated by 10-assist games against Syracuse and Alcorn State, but playing against a slow-paced Iowa squad that allows the fourth-fewest assists per game (9.0) in the country will be different.
Iowa vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State -10.5
- Under 141.5
- Killyan Toure Over 9.5 points
- Joshua Jefferson Under 4.5 assists
Iowa vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Iowa +10.5 (-110) | Iowa State -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa +500 | Iowa State -700
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110)
Iowa vs Iowa State betting trend to know
The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Iowa vs Iowa State
| Location | Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date | Thursday, December 11, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Iowa vs Iowa State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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