It’s been a rough season for the Maryland Terrapins. Senior Day won’t be a fun experience for them as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini this afternoon.
The Illini dropped 89 points on the Terps in the first meeting. I explain why Keaton Wagler will lead another big offensive outburst in my Illinois vs. Maryland predictions and college basketball picks below.
Illinois vs Maryland prediction
Illinois vs Maryland best bet: Illinois team total Over 81.5 (-115)
The Illinois Fighting Illini operate the most efficient offense in college basketball. And they’re going to lay the hammer to a Maryland Terrapins defense allowing an eFG% of 54.8% to opposing teams.
Since February 1, the Terps rank 363rd in turnover rate forced, 312th in 3-point defense, and 292nd in eFG% defense. And the lack of any interior presence leaves them exposed defensively and on the glass.
Meanwhile, since February 1, the Illini rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency, 10th in turnover rate, and 16th in offensive rebounding.
Illinois vs Maryland same-game parlay
Maryland also ranks 347th in assist rate allowed, with opponents dropping a dime on 60.9% of their made field goals. Keaton Wagler has a 27.9% assist rate in Big Ten play and notched eight assists in the first meeting.
The Terps look like they’re done. Senior Day or not, this will get ugly. The Illini are fighting to improve their seed line for the NCAA Tournament and will want to make a statement with a rout.
Illinois vs Maryland SGP
- Illinois team total Over 81.5
- Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 assists
- Illinois -15.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Apple Picking!
Illinois moved the ball with ease against the Terps in the first meeting, as Maryland time and again got burned on double-teams and overpursuit. That’s why the Illini had 17 assists on 27 made shots.
David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic both had three dimes in that contest and have double-digit assist rates in conference play.
Illinois vs Maryland SGP
- Illinois team total Over 81.5
- Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 assists
- David Mirkovic Over 2.5 assists
- Tomislav Ivisic Over 1.5 assists
- Illinois -15.5
Illinois vs Maryland odds
- Spread: Illinois -15.5 | Maryland +15.5
- Moneyline: Illinois -1667 | Maryland +900
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
How to watch Illinois vs Maryland
| Location | XFINITY Center, College Park, MD |
| Date | Sunday, March 8, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Illinois vs Maryland key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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