Florida vs Alabama Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gators Offense Can't Produce

Alabama continues to cruise this season on the back of a stout defense and balanced attack. Florida has been solid this season, but our college basketball picks believe the Crimson Tide have what it takes to shut the Gators down.

Last Updated: Feb 8, 2023 10:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Colin Castleton Florida Gators NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide host the Florida Gators in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday night. The Tide will look to stay undefeated in SEC play against a Gators squad that has been extremely competitive against conference opponents.

College basketball betting lines opened with the Tide as 9.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 147.5 before the total ticked up to 149.5. Here are my best free Florida vs. Alabama college basketball picks and predictions for February 7. 

Florida vs Alabama best odds

Florida vs Alabama picks and predictions

The Gators have done a good job of covering the spread lately but they haven't been playing well on offense. Matter of fact, they've been held to 67 or fewer points in five of their last six contests. The only game where they went above that number during that span, came at home against a South Carolina team that is near the bottom of the country in opponent field goal percentage. 

Florida will find it much tougher to score against a Bama side that has yet to surrender more than 69 points in a conference game. The Tide play at a blazing-fast tempo but they also shut down opponents at every level, ranking second in the country in both opponent 2-point percentage (42.5%) and opponent 3-point percentage (26.1%). 

The Gators don't have much scoring depth behind big man Colin Castleton and the Tide have the size to neutralize him down low or force him into foul trouble. 

My best bet: Florida Team Total Under 69.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

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Florida vs Alabama spread analysis

The Tide shockingly got clobbered by Oklahoma in the Big 12/SEC challenge two weeks ago, but that's their only loss in the last month and a half.

They've gone a perfect 10-0 in SEC play with an incredible nine of those victories coming by double digits. In their last game, they travelled to Baton Rouge and beat up the Tigers 79-69 holding them to 31% shooting from the field. 

Freshman Brandon Miller leads the team with 18.8 points per game while shooting 44.2% from beyond the arc and grabbing 8.2 rebounds. Guard Mark Sears (13.7 ppg, 2.9 apg, 1.4 spg) is the glue guy while Noah Clowney (10 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and Charles Bediako (5.3 rpg and 1.5 bpg in 20.3 mpg) give Bama the length to dominate on the glass. 

The Gators are coming off a 72-67 road loss to Kentucky which was a bit of a let-down spot after they upset No. 2 Tennessee earlier in the week. Florida also got smashed in the Big 12/SEC challenge but has looked very competitive in conference play.

The Gators are 6-4 straight up and 7-3 against the spread versus SEC opponents, and all of those defeats were extremely close with a pair of 3-point losses to Auburn and Texas A&M and another loss to the Aggies by just two points. 

Castleton anchors the squad on both ends of the floor with 15.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and a conference-high 3.1 bpg. Will Richard (10.3 ppg on 47/41/88 shooting splits) is the only other Gator averaging double digits in points.

Florida vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

Alabama has been terrific on both ends of the floor and is 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking sixth on defense. 

This has been easily the best defense we've seen out of Bama during the Nate Oats era, and the fact that the Tide are allowing just 62.2 ppg in 10 conference games is all the more impressive when you consider they play at the fastest tempo in the country. 

That ability to push the pace has resulted in the Tide ranking sixth in the country in scoring (83.1 ppg) against Div 1 foes. However, it has also led to some high-scoring performances from non-conference opponents with UConn, North Carolina, Memphis, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma all dropping more than 80 points against them.

That will likely not be the case against Florida who rank just 139th in adjusted offensive efficiency and sit outside the Top 250 in both field goal percentage (43.4%) and 3-point percentage (32.4%). 

The Gators have been stout on defense however, with plenty of length with their wings and Castleton able to protect the rim. They are 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are holding foes to just 61.4 ppg over their last 15 contests. 

Florida vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in Florida's last eight games on the road while going 5-1 in Alabama's previous six contests at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Alabama.

Florida vs Alabama game info

Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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