The Florida State Seminoles face the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels in college hoops action on Tuesday night.
The Noles have been getting clobbered by quality teams, and my Florida State vs. North Carolina predictions are betting on them to get run off the floor tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this ACC showdown on December 30.
Florida State vs North Carolina prediction
Florida State vs North Carolina best bet: North Carolina -14 (-110)
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off back-to-back wins, but those came against a pair of schools who are outside the Top 300 of the KenPom rankings.
Before those victories, the Seminoles were on a five-game skid, which included losses of more than 15 points to Dayton, Houston, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
They even lost at home to lowly UMass, and now they head to Chapel Hill to face the surging North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Tar Heels have won six in a row, including road victories against Kentucky and Ohio State.
Freshman Caleb Wilson looks like a Top-5 pick in next year's NBA draft and leads the team with 19.6 points and 1.8 rebounds per game. He combines with 7-foot center Henri Veesar (16.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) to form an elite frontcourt.
They'll torch an FSU squad that sits outside the Top 200 in opponent 2-point percentage (52.6%) while ranking 282nd in defensive rebounding rate. Florida State's biggest strength is its defensive pressure, but UNC is 32nd in the nation in turnover rate.
UNC played without top guard Seth Trimble for six weeks, but he returned to the lineup just before Christmas and hasn't missed a beat.
With Trimble taking care of the ball, and Wilson and Veesar dominating inside, back the Tar Heels to win big.
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Florida State vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Trimble has logged 3+ assists in all four of the games he's played this season, and he's fresh off a performance where he dropped five dimes in just 26 minutes.
Wilson has gone Over 10.5 rebounds in nine of his last 11 games. With FSU struggling on the glass and playing at an extremely fast pace, there will be plenty of available boards for Wilson.
Florida State vs North Carolina SGP
- North Carolina -14
- Seth Trimble Over 2.5 assists
- Caleb Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Take a chance on Chauncey
Chauncey Wiggins has knocked down at least a pair of threes in eight of 12 games this season. The stretch big will take plenty of shots from downtown once FSU falls behind on the scoreboard.
Florida State vs North Carolina SGP
- North Carolina -14
- Seth Trimble Over 2.5 assists
- Caleb Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds
- Chauncey Wiggins Over 1.5 threes
Florida State vs North Carolina odds
- Spread: Florida State +14 | North Carolina -14
- Moneyline: Florida State +750 | North Carolina -1200
- Over/Under: Over 165 | Under 165
Florida State vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Florida State vs North Carolina
| Location | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Florida State vs North Carolina key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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