It’s as good an early-season showdown in college hoops as you can ask for, with the No. 4-ranked Duke Blue Devils making their way to East Lansing to take on No. 7 Michigan State.
Neither team has lost a game yet this season, with the 9-0 Blue Devils pegged as slight 1.5-point favorites over the 8-0 Spartans in the college basketball odds.
My Duke vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks have a pair of Top-10 defenses bringing this one Under the total.
Duke vs Michigan State prediction
Duke vs Michigan State best bet: Under 142.5 (-110)
The Duke Blue Devils' pre-conference slate has been challenging and rewarding, as they’ve answered the bell in all the biggies they’ve played. They just squeezed by No. 15 Florida in a 67-66 thriller, a game after dumping No. 22 Arkansas 80-71. They also have a win over then No. 24 Kansas 78-66.
Their success is carved out of a defense that has held opponents to 34.4% shooting from the field, which ranks second in the country. Their scoring defense is fifth in college hoops at 59.6 points per game, and teams are shooting a paltry 25.6% from 3-point range.
Offensively, freshman Cameron Boozer has starred, topping 20 points in five of Duke’s first nine games, while the team has shot a crisp 51.2% from the field (25th).
The Michigan State Spartans’ slate is far from soft: they grinded out a 3-point win over No. 14 Arkansas, then crushed No. 12 Kentucky and 16th-ranked North Carolina by double digits. Most recently, they stomped out Iowa 71-52 to kick off conference play.
Michigan State isn’t even in the Top 10 in scoring, field goal, or 3-point shooting in the Big Ten, but they're beastly on the glass, leading the conference with 14.4 offensive rebounds per game while ranking Top 5 in assists.
Their defense is also the bread and butter of this blistering start, as they hold teams to 60.4 points per game (seventh), and limit teams to 28.2% from 3-point range.
This will be the fourth matchup of these schools in the 2020s, with Duke winning two of three, with all games at Cameron Indoor.
As the scene shifts to the Breslin Center for the first time since 2019, it’s a clear advantage for Michigan State, who are a whopping 116-16 under Tom Izzo at home in December.
Still, it’s a little too close to call, so we’ll stick with the prevailing trend on the total and trust the defense: Duke has cashed the Under in six straight games, while MSU has gone Under in six of the last seven.
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Duke vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Sophomore guard Jeremey Fears leads the nation in assists at 9.4 per game and has had eight games with 9+ dimes. Against ranked teams, he’s gone for 8+ assists in two of three games, missing the third against UNC by just one assist.
Cameron Boozer will face one of the more physical opponents in his young career, and that should make the difference in his rebounding line. He’s gone Under 9.5 boards in three of his last four games.
Duke vs Michigan State SGP
- Under 142.5
- Jeremy Fears Over 7.5 assists
- Cameron Boozer Under 9.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Doing what they do best!
At direct opposition to Boozer is senior big man Jaxson Kohler, who has gone for double-digit rebounds in back-to-back games and has had 10+ boards four times on the season.
Caleb Foster is shooting a career-best 44.8% from 3-point range this year on just over three attempts per game. He’s hit at least two triples in four of his last seven games.
Duke vs Michigan State SGP
- Under 142.5
- Jeremy Fears Over 7.5 assists
- Cameron Boozer Under 9.5 rebounds
- Jaxson Kohler Over 9.5 points
- Caleb Foster Over 1.5 threes
Duke vs Michigan State odds
- Spread: Duke -1.5 | Michigan State +1.5
- Moneyline: Duke -115 | Michigan State -105
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Duke vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Duke is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Michigan State. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Duke vs Michigan State
| Location | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Duke vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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