The 2026 Men’s Final Four goes down on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The first matchup features the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini and the No. 2 UConn Huskies, followed by the heavyweight showdown of the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats.
Read on for my March Madness picks against the spread for both Final Four games on April 4, and see why I have Illinois advancing to its second-ever National Championship Game.
March Madness against the spread picks on Saturday, April 4
UConn
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Expert March Madness Final Four ATS picks for Saturday
No. 3 Illinois vs No. 2 UConn: 
Illinois -2 (-110)
The Illinois Fighting Illini are the better team, and are still favored despite a significant Dan Hurley tax baked into this line.
Little can be taken away from the regular season meeting between these programs on November 28, so instead, let’s breakdown the matchup.
Illinois has more playmakers and shot-makers offensively, canning 10.7 3-pointers per game and shooting 78% from the stripe. The UConn Huskies are hitting just 27.5% from beyond the arc since March 1 and are poor shooters at the foul line (71.9%).
Much has been made about Illinois’ defense, which was perceived to be a weakness heading into the NCAA Tournament, but that was more reputation and vibes-based thinking than reality.
Illinois checks in only five spots behind UConn in adjusted defensive efficiency since March 1 (BartTorvik).
The Illini rank fifth in proximity (Haslametrics), possessing the size and competency to limit the Huskies at the rim offensively, putting the onus on streaky shooters.
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No. 1 Michigan vs No. 1 Arizona: 
Arizona +1.5 (-110)
The Arizona Wildcats are the most talented team in this tournament. I’ve taken them every step of the way, and I’m not stopping now that the lights are brighter.
The Michigan Wolverines have a modern offense in that they live at the rim and behind the arc. Arizona just so happens to be elite at defending both, and is uniquely positioned with both size and athleticism to offer resistance to this break-neck attack.
Michigan has the slight edge according to season-long metrics, but that’s primarily due to several eye-popping blowouts of quality teams back when the calendar read 2025.
It’s a “what have you done for me lately” sport, and the Wildcats have the slight better numbers over the last month (first in BartTorvik; Michigan fifth). There’s also a recent common opponent — Michigan lost 80-72 to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, but Arizona crushed the Boilermakers 79-64 in the Elite Eight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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