If the UConn Huskies are going to upset the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Final Four, it is a safe assumption that one of the most prolific NCAA Tournament players of all time will have a hand in that win.
This is the third Final Four that Alex Karaban has started in. Spoiler alert: UConn won the national championship in the previous two.
Leaning on the senior forward should help the Huskies’ biggest hopes, which lends some credence to leaning on Karaban in your Illinois vs. UConn predictions and March Madness picks for Saturday, April 4.
Alex Karaban best bet vs Illinois: Over 13.5 Points (+100)
Alex Karaban has averaged 17.8 points per game in this NCAA Tournament, clearing this prop in three of four games. He was held to just 2-of-10 from the field against Duke despite playing 38 minutes, but it is worth noting Karaban still attempted six 3-pointers.
Karaban has gone 17-1 in the NCAA Tournament in his career, starting every one of those games, playing at least 26 minutes in each of them, and at least 36 minutes in each of this year’s.
This is not a stage that will give Karaban any hesitation. Playing in a football stadium will not bother his shooting sightlines. He is used to this by now.
Do not doubt Karaban’s scoring because he struggled against Duke. The Blue Devils had one of the best defenses in the country until they very much did not in the closing moments on Sunday evening.
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Alex Karaban same-game parlay
Karaban started this NCAA Tournament shooting 11-of-25 (44%) from deep, hitting at least three triples in each game of the first three rounds. Struggling to 1-of-6 against Duke should not scare you off the UConn veteran.
Against top-50 opponents this season, Karaban shot 43.7% from deep in 14 games, taking more than five 3-pointers per game.
No matter how much the UConn Huskies and Illinois Fighting Illini slow down this national semifinal, Karaban is going to take some shots from deep.
But their slowing down the pace could impact his rebounding totals. Simply enough, if there are only 60-some possessions in this game — and, honestly, it is conceivable this game falls short of even 60 possessions — then there will be only so many rebounds to go around.
Illinois is already the No. 3 offensive rebounding team in the country. There will be only so many rebounds for UConn to track down.
Karaban has already fallen short of this rebounding prop in two of four NCAA Tournament games and in seven of his last 15 games.
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